DVR Use Not Having Huge Impact on Ratings
TV Advertising Facing Changes
Posted on February 25th, 2008 | Categories: advertising, biz, technology, tvTV viewing has undergone profound changes in the past few years with the emergence of Digital Video Recorders (DVR), and especially those with time-shifting capabilities, that turned TV watching into a non-linear experience. This change in watching behavior jeopardizes traditional advertising models and are likely to raise the need for alternative advertising solutions and models. Forrester Research has predicted the viewing of television commercials could decrease by 20% in just a few years. Forrester analyst Joshua Bernoff suggests this is because the DVR “degrades the value of advertising,” predicting the eventual disappearance of an important social element of the television viewing model, that is, “television in which you sit through the commercials is about to be replaced.
But time-shifting is not the only threat facing TV advertising. It is already apparent that TV advertising revenues are generally in decline due to several reasons:
- Decline in total audience of “traditional” channels
- Fall in the attractiveness of TV advertising compared with alternative media such as the Internet where ads are adjusted to specific users, selected according to the context and can be effectively measured (CPM, CPA).
- Reduction in the effectiveness of TV advertising due to time shifting, PVRs, VOD and poor measurement capabilities
Advertisers and services providers need to adapt to these changes and the opportunities they create for new solutions that will tackle these problems through new models and technologies. Such solutions will allow advertisers to target their preferred audience by means of segmentation (possibly using DVRs for generating watching patterns and profiles), and offer an advertising model that will be resilient to ad-skipping and time-shifting.
So, why don’t we see such solutions on the major cable networks? believe that the main reasons are the difficulty to penetrate STBs, the complex business model that requires cable/satellite operators and broadcasters to join forces (and share revenues) and the reluctance of broadcasters to produce accurate measurements of real ad exposures.
A mid-way solution that is already tested in several cable networks is based on geographic targeting where the ads are inserted (using splitters) at the Video Hub Office (VHO) nearest to the end-points (STBs). VisibleWorld is one of the leading companies offering such a solution. VisibleWorld has trials in Comcast, Cablevision and other cable operators. Another company playingin this domain is Navic. http://blog.hi-take.com/DVR Use Not Having Huge Impact on Ratings
Despite the hubbub about DVR use, there’s hope for advertisers and time-sensitive ads, because viewers aren’t delaying the viewing of recorded programs, according to (pdf)Â a recent analysis of Nielsen data by Palisades MediaGroup.
On average, more than half of all DVR primetime program playback is done within the same day of recording - and by the end of the following day DVR owners complete approximately three-quarters of all program playback, Palisades said:
While DVR penetration appears to be growing at a rapid pace, its usage isn’t making a significant impact on ratings: “At least not yet,” said Susie Thomas, SVP, director of research and insights at Palisades MediaGroup. “Nielsen estimates DVR penetration to be at 20%, up from 12% in January of this year. While this is a good-sized increase, the impact on viewership remains minor.”
According to the study, ratings increase just over 15% due to DVR playback from live to live-plus-seven. The average rating against adults aged 18-49 was 2.5 for live viewing and 2.9 for live-plus-seven viewing; an increase of only 16.7%.
While fast-forwarding through the ads is still an issue, not all people who use a DVR fast-forward: The data show that less than half of people who watch a recorded program fast-forward through the ads during playback.
“Of course there are fluctuations when looking at the data program by program,” noted Thomas, “but overall DVR usage is not dramatically cutting into live viewing.”
Equally significant, the top 10 most-DVR’d primetime shows among adults 18-49 are played back as much as 58% on the same day (CBS’s Survivor: China) and as little as 27% (CW’s Reaper):
http://www.nyquistcapital.com/symbol/tivo/
Intel, Novell stump for Moblin netbook OS
20 TalkBacksIntel and Novell on Thursday announced a deal to push Moblin, the open source Linux platform designed to work with the chip giant’s Atom chip. Intel cooked up Moblin and then handed it off to the open source community.
Among the details of the plan:
- Novell will create a Moblin-based product for netbooks;
- Novell will establish an open lab in Taiwan to push Moblin adoption;
- Intel and the Taiwan Moblin Enabling Center will validate designs for Moblin compliance.
Intel started Moblin in 2007 and then handed it off to the Linux Foundation. Novell has contributed window, email and media management code.
Here’s the architecture overview:
Strategy Analytics: Scientific Atlanta Leads Dvr Market Share Gains in 2003; In 5.35 Million...
Publication: Business WireDate: Wednesday, March 17 2004
Business Editors/High-Tech Writers
LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 17, 2004
The latest Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices report, "Integrated DVRs : Global Market Forecast," finds that worldwide sales of integrated Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) reached 2.7 million
units in 2003. According to the research, Scientific Atlanta made great strides last year, reaching a 25 percent market share, equal with Echostar (25 percent), and ahead of Pace (10 percent), Hughes Network Systems (10 percent) and Motorola (7 percent). The report concludes that traditional consumer electronics players such as Sony, Samsung, Pioneer and Philips should improve their focus with service providers if they are to make any impression on this rapidly growing market, which is expected to support annual revenues of $5.6 billion by 2008."Scientific Atlanta has set the pace over the past year," commented Peter King, Director of the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices service. "But the company's leadership position will come under threat as rival vendors gain ground over the coming months. In addition, we believe both Pace and Humax are well positioned to benefit from any increased focus on DVRs at DirecTV."
The report predicts that global annual sales of integrated DVRs will reach 27.6 million units by 2008, at an average annual growth rate of 59 percent. Satellite will remain the dominant platform, accounting for 15.5 million units, while cable will reach 10.7 million by this time. The report also concludes that there will be 71.5 million DVR users worldwide by 2008.
This particular report refers exclusively to "Integrated DVRs,", digital television set-top box receivers with integrated hard disk drive storage devices, otherwise known as PVRs (Personal Video Recorders). It excludes other DVR-like devices such as standalone DVRs (without integrated digital TV), and DVD recorders.
Integrated DVRs: Global Market Forecast 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Annual sales (M units) 0.93 2.69 5.35 9.16 14.72 21.21 27.63Source: Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices service
About Strategy Analytics
Strategy Analytics, Inc., a global research and consulting firm, provides timely insights and strategic business solutions to companies operating at the convergence of information, communications and entertainment technologies. With worldwide headquarters in Newton, MA and principal offices in England, France and Germany, Strategy Analytics focuses on market opportunities and challenges in the areas of Automotive Electronics, Broadband, Telematics, Wireless Strategies and Enabling Technologies. For more information, see www.strategyanalytics.com