黎阳：中国的八千亿美元美国国债完蛋了

黎阳

2010．2．3．

据2009年3月13日新华社报道，温家宝说：借钱给美国，有点担心：

——对于《华尔街日报》记者关于对美债权是否担心的问题，温家宝总理坦言，确实非常关心这些资产的安全。温家宝说，中国确实是美国最大的债权国，美国又是世界上最大的经济体，我们十分关注美国经济的发展。奥巴马总统的新政府采取了一系列的应对金融危机的措施，我们对于这些措施的效果予以期待。温总理说，我们把巨额资金借给美国，当然关心我们资产的安全。说句老实话，我确实有些担心。因而我想通过你再次重申要求美国保持信用，信守承诺，保证中国资产的安全。温家宝表示，任何国家不能对人民币升值或贬值施加压力。 （新华手机报3月13日 两会特刊） ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

对于这“有点担心”，美国欧洲太平洋资本有限公司总裁彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff，president of Euro Pacific Capital）毫不留情地给了当头一盆冷水：别指望美国会还这八千亿美元的国债，中国只能当是打水漂了。（见附录：彼得·希夫2009年7月12日在米塞斯研究院的演讲《为什么我们不应对金融危机感到意外》（Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One）演讲摘要） ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

彼得·希夫真是直言不讳：明明白白告诉你美国国债就是个大规模的庞氏骗局，你中国买了就是肉包子打狗——有去无回。见识了人家的逻辑才真正见识了人家的“普世价值”——借债不还还振振有词倒打一耙：“你们是食利者！放高利贷者！我们需要修改游戏规则，我们要打破债务枷锁！你们明知我们还不了，还借给我们那么多钱！这不是我们的错！”“我们为什么还要在意中国人怎么想？华盛顿难道会得罪选民，去取悦非选民？” ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

彼得·希夫简直一点面子都不给留：“我想他们不只是‘有些’担忧，这只是公开说法，想象一下他们私下会怎么看？他们一定知道我们不会还这笔钱，不可能给中国人还这笔钱，这是绝对不可能的。”——这可好，一语道破中国买美国国债的人早就心知肚明这是把老百姓的血汗钱白扔，而且明知是白扔还要就要扔。 ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

八千亿美元，即便按1：6汇率算也是四万八千亿人民币——相当于多少民工的流血流汗、多少老百姓的倾家荡产勒紧裤带？多少中国老百姓住不起房、上不起学、看不起病、养不起老？跟给美国人一送就是四万八千亿的大手笔相比，给60岁以上的农民55元算老几？有那么多钱送美国，有那么钱免除别国债务，有那么多钱盖豪华办公楼、买公车、吃公款，却没有钱给中国老百姓解决实实在在的问题——“负责任的大国”对谁都负责，唯独不对本国老百姓负责。否则怎么会把中国老百姓的血汗钱往美国白扔，还要逼着中国老百姓吃安全根本没保证的转基因大米？ ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

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黎阳声明：本人放弃对此文的版权。只要不违背本文主旨，任何人均可转贴，可散发，可抄袭，可复制，可被冒名顶替，可被任何媒体拿去用，可被任何人引用到任何文章中且不写出引文出处，本人分文不取。

附录：美国欧洲太平洋资本有限公司总裁彼得．希夫（Peter Schiff，president of Euro Pacific Capital）2009年7月12日在米塞斯研究院的演讲《为什么我们不应对金融危机感到意外》（Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One）摘要 ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

原文见http://mises.org/story/3493）
录像见http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3915119166991168859#
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——你知道，昨天中国领导人公开表示对借给我们的钱“有些”担忧【台下大笑】，说“有可能”我们还不了。我想他们不只是“有些”担忧，这只是公开说法，想象一下他们私下会怎么看？他们一定知道我们不会还这笔钱，不可能给中国人还这笔钱，这是绝对不可能的。 ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

Because the Chinese just mentioned yesterday that they were getting a little concerned about all the money they loaned us and that just maybe we won't pay them back. I'm sure they're a lot more than just a little concerned, because that's what they said publicly. Imagine what they're saying privately. ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

Because they know we're not going to pay them back. Of course we're not going to pay the Chinese back their money. It's impossible. We can't. We can't possibly.

——想象一下，某天总统奥巴马，对着数万亿美国民众，发表一次公开的电视演说。他这样说道：

“亲爱的美国同胞们，今天非常不幸地，我给你们带来了一个坏消息。政府决定对美国普通民众大幅加税；那些仍然没有失业的人，将为此支付更高的个人所得税；政府将全面削减社会福利，仍然没有实施的各种福利措施将彻底取消；我原先制定的所有计划，包括全民教育、医疗保障、自主能源，所有这些计划将被无限期搁置。因为中国人要我们还钱！【台下长时间狂笑】我们借的实在是太多了，全世界妇孺皆知【台下笑】。欠债还钱，天经地义。所以我们必须勒紧裤腰带给中国人还钱！【台下大笑】” ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

Can you imagine? Can you imagine if President Obama, giving the following type of speech to the American citizens.

He'll give a national televised address and say, "My fellow Americans, I've got a little news for you today. We're going to have to have a massive, across-the-board tax increase on average working Americans. Any American that still has a job is going to have to pay much higher income taxes. ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

"And, as a matter of fact, we're going to have to cut Social Security across the board. Forget the Social Security check, we're going to have to reduce it. And remember all my plans about more education and health care for everybody and energy independence, we got to put all those plans on hold, because the Chinese need their money. ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

"We borrowed a lot of money from the Chinese and we're good for our debts. They worked hard for that money and they loaned it us to and we're going to pay it back. And that's going to require a big sacrifice on our part." ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

——大家认为这样的事可能发生吗？别开玩笑了。

我们更应该对中国人说：“你们是食利者！放高利贷者！我们需要修改游戏规则【笑】，我们要打破债务枷锁！你们明知我们还不了，还借给我们那么多钱！【台下大笑】这不是我们的错！”

Does anyone think that we're going to do that? What are they, kidding me?

Do you know what we're going to tell the Chinese? We're going to say, "You guys are predators, predator lenders. We need a modification program. We need a cramdown on this. You never should have lent us all this money. You know we can't pay it back. It's not our fault." ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

——中国人自己很清楚，他们无法参与我们的政治选举，我们为什么还要在意中国人怎么想？华盛顿难道会得罪选民，去取悦非选民？

The Chinese know this. The Chinese, they can't even vote in our elections. Why are we going to care what they think? We're going to tax voters to pay non-voters?

——中国人很清楚，我们不可能还他们钱，这和伯尼•麦道夫的骗局是同一个道理。别人借我们钱，我们是怎么还的？——再去借新债。

So the Chinese know they're in this box. The US government, we don't pay our bills. We're like Bernie Madoff. People loan us money. How do we pay it back? We borrow more.

——麦道夫早期的客户确实能把钱要回来，为什么？因为麦道夫仍然在吸收新钱，骗那些还不知道这是庞氏骗局的人入会。财政部也在做同样的事情，国债到期了怎么办？——再把它卖给其他人。需要支付利息怎么办？——照借不误。如果有一天谁也不愿再买我们的国债了，那就只能违约，和麦道夫一样。违约只有两条途径，要么直接宣布不还，要么印钱。这就是这些债务唯一可能的结局，反正它们不可能被偿还。中国人当然知道这一切，我们很快就会明白。 ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

If somebody came to Bernie Madoff a couple years ago and wanted their money, they got it. Why did they get it? Because they were able to take in new money. They found another sucker who didn't know it was a Ponzi scheme. ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

Same thing the US government does. Every time a bond matures, we just go sell another one. And every time we need to pay interest on the national debt, we go borrow that too. Well, it works until nobody wants to lend us any more money, then we're going to have to default, just like Bernie did. ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

And there's only two ways we can default. We just legitimately don't pay, or we print money. That's it. There's only two ways to repudiate your debt. There's no way we're going to pay the debt; the Chinese have to know that, and we're going to figure that out. ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"

——在我看来，与其把麦道夫投进监狱，我们不如任命他为财政部部长【台下听众狂笑】，因为他的经验是我们最最需要的——那就是玩“庞氏骗局”的经验。【台下大笑】

And, of course, I said, instead of putting Bernie Madoff in jail, we should just make him Secretary of the Treasury. Because he's got a lot of experience, exactly the kind that we need, running a Ponzi scheme. ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"