中国如何平安渡过金融风暴?

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中国如何平安渡过金融风暴?2008-10-25 11:06

  How Will China Weather the Financial Storm?

  When the global financial storm began to gather a year ago, China appeared to be a nation that was well supplied with raincoats. The economy was growing at double-digit rates, Chinese banks had little overseas exposure to the credit crisis, and the country‘s $1.9 trillion in hard-currency reserves stood as a vast emergency fund that could be drawn upon in the event of trouble. Just two months ago, while giant Wall Street and European banks were crumbling, China was relishing its role as host of the Olympic Games as the world paid tribute to its years of remarkable, seemingly unstoppable, economic progress.

  The raincoats, it turns out, have holes in them. With the chances for global recession increasing, it‘s becoming clear that not even the world‘s fastest-growing major economy can avoid a pronounced slowdown. Any remaining hopes to the contrary were dashed recently when China‘s National Bureau of Statistics released the country‘s latest economic data: in the third quarter, GDP growth had slipped to 9%, the slowest quarterly pace since 2003. Meanwhile, estimates for 2009 growth are being slashed to as low as 8%, which would be a dramatic deceleration from last year‘s 12% rate and would rank as China‘s worst results since 1999.

  It‘s pretty clear why China is hitting the skids. The country‘s economic transformation over the past 25 years led a great wave of globalization during which the mainland‘s once small and isolated economy became much bigger and deeply integrated into global commerce — making it more exposed to the business cycles of its big trading partners such as the U.S. "The huge elephant in the China shop is the slowing global economy," says Merrill Lynch Asia economist T.J. Bond, citing an obvious reason: China‘s manufacturing sector, which accounts for 43% of China‘s GDP, depends heavily upon sales to the West. Some 40% of China‘s exports go to the U.S. and Europe, and with potentially deep recessions setting in there, economists are slashing the country‘s trade projections. Bond estimates China‘s export growth rate will fall to 10% in 2009 from 21% this year. For the revved-up mainland, that‘s a frightening plunge.

  A slump in exports has pretty grim implications for the country‘s manufacturing boomtowns, and the pain is already being felt. Stanley Lau, deputy chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, estimates that export orders at some 70,000 factories owned by Hong Kong companies in southern China have declined 5-10% this year compared with 2007. Recent months have seen a first wave of bankruptcies and closures among the tens of thousands of factories in industrial zones from Guangzhou to Shanghai that make toys, jeans and PCs bound for U.S. retailers.

  Chinese manufacturers are particularly vulnerable to recession right now, partly because of higher labor and commodities costs and partly due to the simple fact that China‘s boom resulted in the creation of far more factories than global demand could possibly support in a cyclical downturn. A shakeout is unavoidable, and it is being made worse by the worldwide credit crunch. Nervous banks, Lau says, have reduced the credit lines of many small manufacturers by up to 50%, starving them of operating funds. Letters of credit, which facilitate the shipment of exports, were once automatically accepted by banks in Hong Kong, but now they are being held until bankers are sure funds are coming from overseas, so payments to manufacturers for their products are being delayed. As a result, Lau says he expects 20% of the Hong Kong – owned China factories, which employ 10 million, could be shut down by early next year. That‘s a big concern to government officials who will be hard pressed to cope with a growing army of newly unemployed migrant workers. When Hong Kong toymaker Smart Union abruptly closed its doors in mid-October, hundreds of angry ex-employees crowded outside its shuttered factory in Guangdong province demanding unpaid wages. Says Lau: "I worry that the situation can‘t be improved."

  With global growth expected to slow further in coming months, the pressures facing manufacturers certainly will increase. Some Chinese companies are giving up their export businesses entirely. Shi Junmin, CEO of Pinghu Mingda Bag and Suitcases Co. in Zhejiang province near Shanghai, had been selling suitcases to U.S. customers since 2006. He stopped in June. Orders were still flowing in from America, but clients, strained by the financial crisis, were not paying him, Shi says. By mid-year, he says he was owed some $3 million. Shi instead shifted to manufacturing luggage for local China brands, hoping domestic sales could rescue his company. "We just ran out of money to buy materials to manufacture our own," Shi complains. "Processing for domestic factories is our only option."

  Counting on Chinese consumers, however, may not be a sure bet. Some economists had thought increasingly wealthy Chinese, with their appetite for cars, mobile phones and Big Macs, could help fill the breach opened by retreating American spenders. But that hope, too, is fading. Though Chinese spending is so far holding up — retail sales of consumer goods jumped by 23% in September — household consumption, at only 40% of GDP (compared to about 65% in industrialized countries), isn‘t yet substantial enough to maintain China‘s high growth rates. "I don‘t think [domestic spending] will replace what has been lost in exports," says UBS economist Wang Tao. Nor will it offset another weakening pillar of China‘s economy: real estate. Rampant construction of new office towers and apartment blocks in recent years was a huge boon to growth. But government action to cool down the market, by, for example, restricting credit for property development, is resulting in a sharp falloff in construction. After 35% growth in real estate investment in the first half of the year, Wang of UBS estimates growth dropped sharply to some 20% in July and August. The property sector accounts for about a quarter of all fixed-asset investment in China and about 10% of national employment. A slump could drag down other sectors such as steel production. "Beijing cannot afford a collapse in the housing market," wrote Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities for JP Morgan, in a recent note to investors.

  The Chinese government has quickly awakened to the threat of a sharp slowdown. Until a few months ago, Beijing‘s top priority had been fighting inflation. Now policymakers are easing off the brakes and hitting the gas again in an effort to stimulate growth. The central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate twice in the past 45 days, the first cuts since 2002. In mid-October, the State Council announced plans to increase infrastructure spending, to offer tax rebates for exporters and to boost government-controlled prices for agricultural products. Beijing is also widely expected to introduce measures to resuscitate the faltering property market, in an attempt to prevent a U.S.-style crash in home prices. The government announced on Oct. 22 that it will waive taxes on certain property deals to spur flagging sales.

  Government action could shield the Chinese economy from the worst of a global slump. Indeed, economists currently say China ought to remain a relatively bright spot amid the economic gloom. Merrill Lynch estimates that China will account for 40% of world GDP growth in 2009. Continued strong Chinese demand for raw materials, machinery and consumer goods is expected to prop up other Asian economies — the region as a whole is projected to dodge recession next year.

  But even when growing at a double-digit rate, China‘s economy is not yet large enough by itself to keep the global economy surging. The country accounts for only about 5% of total world GDP; the U.S. is responsible for 28%. "China‘s strength can help," says UBS‘s Wang, "but its not enough to save the world." China may be lucky just to save itself.

By Michael Schuman Thursday, Oct. 23, 2008

译文:(原文链接)

  一年前,在席卷全球的金融风暴开始酝酿的时候,中国就像撑上了保护伞一般岿然不动,经济仍保持两位数的增长,银行基本没有受到海外信用危机的影响,1.9万亿的外汇储备为应付可能出现的紧急情况做好了资金准备。就在两个月前,金融巨人华尔街和欧洲银行相继崩溃的时候,中国还沉醉在奥运会东道主的角色中,全世界对近几年表现杰出、似乎不可能停止的中国经济啧啧称赞。

  结果证明保护伞也有窟窿。随着全球经济不景气加剧,即使是世界增长最快的主要经济实体也无法避免明显的放缓。中国国家统计局发表了全国最新经济数据,第三季度,GDP增长下滑到9%,是2003年以来的最低点。这一数据的发表打破了最后残留的经济增长希望。同时,对2009年的预测减低到8%,跟去年的12%相比减速明显,这将是1999年以来中国最糟糕的经济表现。

  中国经济走下坡路的原因很明显。25年的经济改革引领了经济全球化潮流,中国大陆小规模、孤立的经济变成了大规模经济,并与全球贸易深刻结为一体,使其更多地受到来自美国等贸易伙伴的经济周期影响。“减缓的全球经济是问题关键,”美林亚洲经济学家T.J. Bond举了一个明显的例子:中国的制造业占全国GDP增长的43%,严重依赖向西方出口。出口的40%销往美国和欧洲,随着欧美经济不景气,西方国家削减了对中国的贸易额。Bond预测,中国的出口增长率将在2009年下降到10%,而今年的数字是21%。

  出口大幅下降对中国的制造业新兴城市产生了严重的影响,现在已经能感受到切肤之痛了。香港工业总会副主席刘展灏预计,香港公司在中国南方所设的7万个工厂的订单量今年已经比1007年下降了5%到10%。近几个月在广州、上海等地的工业区的几万家工厂中,出现了第一波破产和关闭,涉及面向美国零售商出口的玩具业、服装业和PC业。

  中国制造业者在目前的经济不景气中成了惊弓之鸟,一部分原因是中国经济急速增长中出现了过多工厂,造成了劳动力和成本的升高,产能也超出了全球的需要,从而出现了经济增长的周期性下降。轻度的衰退不可避免,随着全球信用系统崩溃,情况正变得更严重。刘展灏表示,脆弱的银行系统已经将针对许多小制造商的最高贷款额度调低到最低50%,造成了这些企业周转资金捉襟见肘。货运所需的信用证一度被香港的银行自动接受,而目前只在银行确认了海外付款后才可以拿到,因此对制造商所付的货款被延期了。刘展灏表示,20%港资的内地工厂将会在明年早些时候关闭,这些工厂雇佣了一千万员工。这对政府官员来说则意味着需要解决日益增长的失业大军问题。香港玩具生产商合骏破产,10月中旬关了门,几百愤怒的工人涌向位于广东省的工厂门口,所要没有支付的薪水。刘展灏说,“我很担心情况能否有所改善。”

  接下来的几个月里,全球经济可能持续走低,制造商所面临的问题也将日益严峻。一些中国公司已经完全放弃了出口业务。浙江省平湖市明达箱包公司CEO施军民从2006年开始向美国出口箱包,今年6月已经停止出口了。仍有订单来自美国,但客户由于受金融危机影响,已经没在付款了,施军民说。年中时候,还有300万美元的未到帐。他开始为中国本土品牌代工生产箱包,希望通过内销拯救公司。“我们已经没钱来买原料自己生产了,”他说,“为国内工厂生产也是别无选择。”

  中国消费者也不一定靠得住。一些经济学家认为,随着中国老百姓逐渐富裕,他们买车、买手机和巨无霸汉堡,这对填补美国消费者花费减少带来的经济缺口会有帮助。但这个希望正在变得渺茫,虽然中国的消费品零售额九月增长到了23%,家庭消费只占GDP的40%(工业化国家是65%),因此不足以维持中国经济的高速增长。瑞士联合银行经济学家汪涛说,“我不认为内需会填补出口的损失”。也不能抵消中国另一块软肋:房地产。近年来疯狂建设新写字楼和小区带来了为房地产市场带来了巨大利益,但政府通过诸如限制房地产开发贷款等措施让市场冷却了下来,结果造成了建筑业的显著下降。前半年房地产投资增长了35%,汪涛预计,这一数字已经在7月和8月下降到20%。在中国,房地产占全部固定资产投资的四分之一,从业人数达到了10%。经济萧条可能影响相关产业部门,如钢铁生产。“北京承受不了住房市场崩溃,”JP摩根中国市场部主管李晶最近在写给投资者的信函中提到。

  中国政府对突然的经济减速很快做出反应。直到几个月前,北京高层还在跟通货膨胀作斗争,现在政策制定者开始松刹车,踩足油门刺激经济增长。央行45天内两次降低了基准利率,是2002年以来的第一次降低。10月中旬,国务院宣布了增加基础建设投资的计划,为出口商提供退税、提高农产品的政府限价。北京还有望发布一系列措施来刺激蹒跚不前的房地产市场,力图防止美国式的住宅价格崩溃发生。政府在22日宣布取消一些房地产交易税以刺激萎靡的销售。

  政府行为能在全球衰退的最坏境况下保护中国经济。事实上经济学家现在表示,中国应该在整体的经济不利局面中,维持相对有希望的增长点。美林预测,中国2009年的GDP增长有望占到全球的40%。持续的原材料、机械和消费品需求有助于亚洲经济——这一地区预计明年可以躲避经济衰退。

  就算仍保持两位数增长,中国的经济也不足以支撑全球经济冲击。中国的GDP只占了全世界的5%,而美国则占了28%。“中国的优势能发挥作用,”汪涛说,“但不足以拯救世界。”