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Thursday, July 27, 2006

Insurance Fibs

No, this isn't a post on insurance fraud. Just wanted to share a couple of stocks on which I own puts that got clobbered today. Thank you, Mr. Fibonacci!

Aetna:


Cigna:


Oh, I see the bullish 70 point gain today has been destroyed and we're now showing a loss on all major indices. Zzzzzzzzzziiiiiiiiiip. Suck on it, fellas.

at 7/27/2006 9 insightful comments   Links to this post

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Some Junctions More Crucial than Others!

I want to start by offering the stock market bulls an insight into their future once this tug-of-war finally ends.

A lot of people have been asking about sentiment, since apparently there's a lot of bearishness out there, and it's widely considered a contrary indicator. I was intrigued by this, but after examining the graph below, I've concluded that it's a fairly meaningless exercise. Sentiment rockets up and down to the point that it's just noise. The creator of this graph pointed out a few times that bearish sentiment correlated with a market bottom. Well, yeah, but I can just as easily point out three times that bearish sentiment correlated with a top. Because it's meaningless! I've circled (in green) one such example.


Dow 11,257 is what we want to not cross, people. I was nervously watching the Dow today as it ratcheted up another 50 points. But it couldn't keep it up, and it closed down by a point. What's remarkable to me is the doji pattern that formed. How's this for a tug-of-war, folks? I can't remember the last time I saw such an incredible doji. It has indecision written all over it. No one has control of this market! And it's getting tiresome.


Since last Tuesday, the S&P has been pushing ahead with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Not good for us bears. But it has stayed beneath its trendline, and I see strength starting to flag. Make no mistake, though. We have got to close out this week with some meaningful weakness! Recent market activity is far too heartening to our bull friends!


On a daily basis, you can see the S&P is also in a doji pattern (although not to the freakish degree that the Dow was) and we are still safely below the trendline. But we are very close to the danger zone, folks. One more good, strong day, and things are going to suck.

at 7/26/2006 46 insightful comments   Links to this post

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Post # Two Hundred Fifty!

This is my 250th post to this blog (tweet! honk honk! tooooot!) I wish the market gave me more of a reason to celebrate this momentous occasion. But bulls love to buy, irrespective of reality, so there we have it.

NTRI obviously got completely hammered today, losing nearly a fifth of its value. I noticed that NTRI bulls were citing that it was "only" because the CEO had left. As I mentioned in the comments.....can you imagine if the stock were up 20% because of some great news, and NTRI bears cited that news as meaningless? They'd get zinged. So, likewise - - NTRI Bulls, you were dead wrong, and the stock is in sorry shape now.

The comments section is completely abuzz, which I think is terrific. Lots of little battles being waged there, which I think is very much like the market these days. It's just a mud pit of fighting. Someone comment that the market was bullish because "...the GDP rises with time and the markets rise with it." OK, so does that mean the market always goes up? With that logic, apparently so.

Today the market was neither up nor down but simply annoying until about the final hour of the day, when it inexplicably shot up. It closed up just a little over 50 on the Dow. This is a very dangerous juncture for us, fellow bears. The $INDU is mushed right up against an important resistance line, and it's actually risen a skosh more than I would like to see. I'm worried. It sure as hell better head south tomorrow. Crossing above 11,257 would indicate something is very, very, very wrong.


The S&P 500 ($SPX) is likewise mashed right up against an important trendline. 1,280.38 is the upper limit of what I'd tolerate right now.


Now on with some specific short picks. Here's Cigna (CI):


CP:


ESRX is one I haven't talked about in a while. This is sweet looking:


GS is another beauty:


I like Dick Cheney's old company HAL:


Health Net (HNT) is another shortie:


Well congratulations to us all for putting up with 250 of my posts. Here's to the next 250! (God help us....)

at 7/25/2006 49 insightful comments   Links to this post

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