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Tuesday, August 15, 2006

It Sticks/This Sucks

Ouch. The bulls finally got what they've been wanting: a large rally which lasted through the end of the trading session. No more "pop and drop" today! It was nasty.

Below is the minute bar graph of the S&P 500. There was a solid lift right from the opening, and it basically gained strength from there. At one point it looked like a repeat of yesterday, with a triple-digit rally fading quickly, but it recomposed itself and squeezed a lot of bears out of the picture. Again, ouch.


The $VIX is extremely low right now, virtually at a record low. This indicates widespread complacency among traders. Generally speaking, no one is fearing a fall.


I've still got a few charts up my sleeve though. For your consideration, here are some possible short candidates. First, Aetna (AET):


CERN:


ESRX:


MBT:


MOT:


Tomorrow morning the CPI figure and Housing Starts are released at 8:30 EST. Given today's excitement over what appears to be an ease in inflation, it will be interesting to see if the bulls add to today's gains or if we're still stuck in up/down/directionless mode.

at 8/15/2006 190 insightful comments   Links to this post

Monday, August 14, 2006

Fade Away, Again & Again.......

We once again pull out our friend Bob Dole to represent today's action, which is great for us bears. A huge, instant, triple-digit rally followed by a spirit-crushing fade. Huzzah! Another great day on the market. Oil being down hard was helpful, too.


On a daily basis, we've got a nicely formed shooting star. I'll say what I've said so often already - until we break below 10,660, all this shouting about ups and downs is just for fun. We're not in a bull market OR a bear market. We're in a farting-around market, and I'm sure we'll all be glad when we finally get direction (It'll come one day, trust me!)


The reduced tensions in Israel caused oil prices to ease, which did great things for my dozens of oil service-related shorts and puts. The OIH is still a head and shoulders in the making (not completed yet), so, again, it's nice to see it sink, but it's not party time until it breaks that neckline.


The S&P chart doesn't look so different from any of the other major indices - a shooting star, more or less. The bulls are surely frustrated, since they can't seem to make any rally stick. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will have some key interest-rate data, so that should make things interesting.


I'm about to hop aboard a plane (again....) so I'll sign off. Good one today, bears!

at 8/14/2006 113 insightful comments   Links to this post

Friday, August 11, 2006

What a Week.....

The week started with hand-wringing and anticipation about the Fed's announcement on Tuesday. By the end of the week, terrorist fears had people asking "Bernanke who?" It seems like a hundred years ago already.

I've been bellyaching a lot, but I've actually had six profitable days back-to-back, so I guess I should cheer up. I remain confounded at the market's curiously positive reaction to the horrible terror threat, but Friday seemed a little more in touch with reality.

We haven't looked at the Dow 30 in a few days. This is a bit of a wider field. Not much has changed here. The golden number is still 10,660. We can't really start to take over earth until this is broken. Until then, we're just kind of jerking around.


The S&P, like the MidCap and the Russell 2000, is at a bit of a juncture right now, although it seems to be tipping downward. I actually - gasp - bought a bunch of MidCap calls (yes, calls) early today, but I dumped 'em at a loss later when it was clear no rally was going to take place. Things are still mushy, slightly favoring the intelligensia (da bears).


The gold & silver index finally started weaknening again. If this starts to gather speed, it'll be terrific, because this could shape up into a marvelous downward pattern.


Starting with Bed, Bath, and Beyond, here's a slate of cool looking short possibilities. I've got 80 - yes, I can hardly believe it myself - 80 different positions. Out of these 80, 80 are bearish and 0 are bullish. So I guess you can say I've got a slight bearish disposition.

BBBY:


BBD:


CERN:


CME:


DNR (what a ticker symbol, eh?):


HAL:


HLX:


MBT:


SPG:


UBB:


Hope you have a good weekend and don't waste it on something as lowbrow as a golf game. Ta-ta...........

at 8/11/2006 72 insightful comments   Links to this post

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