保罗.克鲁格曼：金融危机中的两类问题

有人问我，为什么不写一些诸如如何救济购房者之类，有独特观点的的文章。也许我应该多写一点；然而在此之前我要先说一下目前经济中存在的两类问题。
如何维持金融系统的运行是最迫切需要解决的问题之一。如果我们希望避免类似于1931年的经济大崩溃，就必须严控这个问题。而解决诸如如何救济购房者之类的问题，显然无法有效缓解银行的资本危机，也不能立即解除目前的燃眉之急。所以短期内解除金融危机的手段主要集中在注入资本和保证流动性上。
现在我们知道经济已经陷入了衰退；即使汹涌而来的金融危机得到了控制，衰退也将延续。我们必须在很多方面有所行动：财政刺激，中央与当地政府的援助，对购房者的救济等等。
两类问题的解决都很重要，我们同时应该清醒的意识到，解决其中一个问题并不能自动地把另外一个问题解决掉。实际上，可能直到下届总统离任，长期手段也不一定能够有效发挥作用。而另一方面，迫切需要解决的短期问题则最好在近些天就予以解决。
Two kinds of problems
One thing I’ve been asked is why I’m not writing more about relief for homeowners and other kinds of bottom-up aid to the economy. Probably I should be saying more. But in defense, let me say that there are two kinds of economic problems right now.
The most acute problems involve the run on the financial system. This has to be brought under control if we want to avoid a 1931-style collapse. And things like homeowner workouts quite simply won’t deliver enough relief to bank capital, and certainly not fast enough, to help significantly on that front. So there’s a financial relief imperative, which mainly involves injection of capital and guarantees of liquidity.
Now, on top of that we’ve got the economy’s slide into recession, which will continue even if the high-speed financial crisis is brought under control. What we need there is action on many things: fiscal stimulus, aid to state and local governments, homeowner relief, and more.
It’s important to work on both kinds of problems, but it’s also important not to imagine that solving either one automatically solves the other. And the slower-motion issues, realistically, won’t be effectively addressed for a while, probably until whatshisname moves out of the White House. The high-speed stuff, on the other hand, had better be addressed in the next few days.
注：保罗·克鲁格曼(PAUL KRUGMAN)现为美国普林斯顿大学公共事务和国际事务学院的经济学教授。他曾经是斯坦福大学的教授和麻省理工学院的教授。1991年，年轻的克鲁格曼获得美国经济学会克拉克奖，名声大噪，克拉克奖被视为诺贝尔奖的重要指针,因此，保罗·克鲁格曼是诺贝尔奖的当然候选人。大约十年前，他的著作《萧条经济学的回归》发表,一时洛阳纸贵。克鲁格曼在1996年的《流行国际主义》一书中准确预言了亚洲金融危机。
这是他的博客地址:http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
这是他的博客地址:http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/

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