心有不甘的2010 What didn’t happen in 2010

Ah, what might have been. The year closes with the lingering taste of unconsummated deals and tantalising near misses. BHP Billiton waved $39bn at Saskatchewan in a hostile offer for Canada’s PotashCorp but was stymied by an outpouring of Canadian nationalism-cum-regulation; Potash shareholders never got a look-in. Prudential was halfway up the aisle and lighting a cigar when its own investors stepped in to halt its $35bn tilt at AIG’s Asian assets.

唉，真让人心有不甘。2010年即将结束，而那些未达成的、吊足了胃口却功亏一篑的交易余味犹存。在对加拿大钾肥(PotashCorp)的敌意收购中，必和必拓(BHP Billiton)向加拿大萨斯喀彻温省(Saskatchewan)开出了390亿美元的报价，却因加拿大民族主义情绪和监管的双重“爆发”而受阻；加钾股东连参与的机会都没捞到。保诚集团(Prudential)以350亿美元收购美国国际集团(AIG)亚洲资产的努力总算过了半程，刚松了口气，却被自己的股东叫停。

Such setbacks hardly mark the end of large-scale mergers and acquisitions, however, even if the lack of deals does help keep extravagant bonus numbers for the bankers under control.

不过，这些挫折并不意味着大宗并购交易的终结，尽管交易清淡的确有助于遏制银行家奖金过高的情况。

Rather, deals rely on confidence as much as strategic and commercial logic, so the precondition for more activity is a stable macroeconomic outlook. Until European governments can get a firm grip on the problems of sovereign debt, few will want to start courting.

更确切地说，交易对于市场信心的依赖，不亚于对战略和商业逻辑的依赖，因此，提振交易活动的前提是稳定的宏观经济前景。在欧洲各国政府牢牢控制住主权债务问题之前，没几家公司愿意开始物色并购目标。

There are also exceptions, such as the year-end surge in convoluted Russian deals, such as UralKali’s planned takeover of Silvinit, or the shareholder shuffle at Norilsk Nickel. Arguably, though, such moves are driven more by regional shareholder-specific motives. Moreover, some sectors never stopped hooking up: the oil and gas sector accounted for $306bn of deals this year. The steady drip-drip of pharmaceuticals M&A looks set to continue as companies cope with patent cliffs.

也有一些例外，例如年末俄罗斯涌现的数起复杂交易——例如乌拉尔钾肥(UralKali)拟议收购Silvinit，或是诺里尔斯克镍业公司(Norilsk Nickel)的股东争端。但此类举动可能更多的是受到当地股东特定动机的驱动。此外，某些领域则从未停止过逐猎：油气行业今年交易总额达3060亿美元。由于各制药企业纷纷应对“专利悬崖”的问题，制药业并购交易细水长流的局面似乎将持续下去。

In fact, overall M&A volume globally, at $962bn, was 62 per cent higher than in 2009, according to Dealogic. The US, UK and Brazil were the most targeted nations, and emerging markets accounted for more than a third of deal volume. Even so, global cross-border M&A was about half its 2007 level.

实际上，Dealogic的数据显示，今年全球并购交易总额达到了9620亿美元，较2009年增长62%。美国、英国和巴西是最受热捧的目标国家，而新兴市场则占到交易总量的三分之一以上。即便如此，全球跨境并购交易规模仅为2007年的一半左右。

But deal-hungry managers of companies with big balance sheets may face a bigger threat to their ambitions. If boards’ caution spreads to investors, they will face calls for idle capital to be returned or have to come up with good reasons for sitting on the cash.

但是，对于一些资金雄厚的企业来说，向往“大买卖”的管理层的雄心可能面临一种更严峻的威胁：如果董事会的谨慎情绪蔓延至投资者，他们将面临这样的呼声：要么退还闲置的资金，要么必须为坐拥大笔现金拿出一个像样的理由来。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析