中国增长模式不可持续

中国增长模式不可持续

China’s growth model is un­sustainable and the country faces a sudden slowdown unless it undergoes urgent economic and political reforms, according to a re­nown­ed Chinese academic.

中国一位知名学者表示，中国的增长模式不可持续，中国经济有可能突然减速，除非立即进行经济和政治改革。

A scathing indictment of the country’s extraordinary growth story, written by Yu Yongding, a former member of the People’s Bank of China monetary policy committee, has been published in the state-controlled China Daily newspaper.

前中国人民银行(PBoC)货币政策委员会委员余永定为由政府控制的《中国日报》(China Daily)撰文，对中国非同寻常的增长神话进行了严厉批判。

It points to rising social tensions, pollution, a lack of public services and an over-reliance on exports and investment, particularly in property, as threats to the nation’s economic future.

文章指出，不断加剧的社会矛盾、污染、公共服务的缺失，以及对出口和投资（尤其是房地产）的过度依赖，都在威胁中国经济的前景。

“China’s rapid growth has been achieved at an ex­tremely high cost. Only future generations will know the true price,” Mr Yu wrote in an editorial.

余永定在这篇社论文章中写道：“中国经济在快速增长的同时也付出了巨大的代价，这些代价却要我们的子孙后代来承担。”

“[The] growth pattern has now almost exhausted its potential. So China has reached a crucial juncture: without painful structural adjustments the momentum of its economic growth could suddenly be lost.”

“（该增长模式）如今已经耗尽其潜力。因此，中国的发展也到了关键的时刻：经济结构调整过程虽然痛苦，但如若不实行，中国经济将丧失良好的增长势头。”

His comments come at a time when many inter­national observers already accept the inevitability of China overtaking the US as the world’s largest economy. Within China, many Communist party leaders speak about the superiority of “socialism with Chinese characteristics”, as shown by its apparent resilience in the global financial crisis.

目前，许多国际观察人士已接受了这样一个观点：即中国必然会取代美国，成为全球第一大经济体。在中国内部，中共许多领导人都在谈论“中国特色社会主义”的优越性，而中国在本轮全球金融危机中所表现出来的抵抗力也似乎证明了这一点。

China’s economy grew 9.6 per cent in the third quarter from the same period in 2009. But many economists are worried about overheating after annual consumer price inflation rose from 4.4 per cent in October to 5.1 per cent last month.

中国经济在第三季度同比增长9.6%，但居民消费价格(CPI)涨幅也从10月份的4.4%上升至上月的5.1%，许多经济学家都担心经济正出现过热。

Mr Yu has been influential in Chinese policymaking. Besides his central bank role, he is former head of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. His harsh critique reflects a debate among policymakers before a 2012 transition that will see many of China’s leaders replaced by younger cadres.

余永定在中国的政策制定方面颇具影响力。除了曾在央行任职，他还担任过中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所所长。他这篇措辞严厉的评论文章反映出，在2012年政府换届之前，中国的政策制定者们正展开激烈的辩论。政府换届后，中国现在的许多领导人将为更年轻的干部所取代。

Joseph Cheng, a professor of political science at the City University of Hong Kong, said many reform-minded scholars were concerned that reforms had stagnated “because leaders are preoccupied with jockeying for position”.

香港城市大学(City University of Hong Kong)政治学教授郑宇硕(Joseph Cheng)表示，许多具有改革意识的学者都担心，“由于领导人都专注于争权夺位”，改革已陷入停滞。

Mr Yu described a lack of innovation and creativity as the economy’s “Achilles heel”, and lamented the inefficient use of capital.

余永定将创新和创造力的缺失形容为中国经济的“阿喀琉斯之踵”，并对资本利用的低效表示叹息。

“Some local governments are literally digging holes and then filling them in to ratchet up the GDP,” he wrote. “Consequently, there are simply too many luxurious condominiums, magnificent government office buildings and soaring skyscrapers.”

“一些地方政府简直是自己挖坑自己填，只为创造GDP，”他写道。“结果只是一幢幢豪华别墅、政府办公大楼和摩天大楼拔地而起。”

While most of his observations have been ex­pressed before, it is unusual to see such complaints from a senior establishment scholar in state media. His comments included a call for political reform to help “break the unholy alliance” between government officials and business people.

尽管他的大部分言论以前就曾表达过，但在官方媒体上看到资深当权派学者表达这些不满仍属罕见。余永定还在社论中呼吁中国进行政治改革，打破权贵之间的“罪恶联盟”。

“Under China’s current institutional arrangements, meritocracy is a prerequisite for good governance, but meritocracy has been eroded by a political culture of sycophancy and cynicism. Once again, the dialectics of economic development has brought political reform back to the fore.”

“在中国当前的政治体制安排下，政治精英是好政府的先决条件。但是，政治精英已经被谄媚与犬儒的政治文化所腐蚀。所以，经济要发展，政改要先行。”

If China could not change the current system of “capitalism of the rich and powerful” and reduce the widening gap between rich and poor that was “fomenting social tension”, then “a serious backlash is brewing”.

如果中国无法改变当前“权贵资本主义”体制，缩小“致使社会矛盾不断加剧”的逐步拉大的贫富差距，必将招致民众的强烈反抗。

译者/何黎