全球房产市场的中国买家 China towns

A game of Chinese whispers has been doing the rounds this autumn. In September, an economist claimed on television that Chinese investors are snapping up homes in east London. Two days later, an estate agent who misheard the programme declared that one-third of all home buyers in the British capital come from the People’s Republic of China. Another estate agent got into a muddle, saying one-in-three pupils starting school at Eton College this autumn is Chinese. The true figure is less than 3 per cent.

今年秋季，有关中国人的谣传可谓甚嚣尘上。9月份，一位经济学家在英国电视上声称，中国投资者正在东伦敦抢购住房。两天后，一位听错了这个节目的房地产经纪人宣称，在英国首都，三分之一的购房者都来自中华人民共和国。另一个房地产经纪人更是离谱，声称伊顿公学(Eton College)今年秋季入学的新生中，有三分之一是中国人。实际上，真实的比例还不到3%。

Misunderstandings aside, however, an essential truth remains: well-heeled Chinese property buyers are making their mark on housing markets worldwide. Some 475,000 Chinese have assets of $1m or more, according to the wealth management strategy firm Scorpio Partnership. This means China has the fourth-largest number of high net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in the world. More good news for estate agents is the fact that China’s HNWIs keep one-fifth of their assets in property.

然而，撇开各方的误读不谈，一个基本的真相依旧存在：富有的中国购房者的身影，正出现在世界各地的房地产市场。按照财富管理战略咨询公司Scorpio Partnership的统计，有47.5万中国人拥有100万美元或更多的资产。这意味着中国拥有全世界第四大规模的高净值富人群体。对房地产经纪人而言，更是好消息的是，中国高净值富人的资产中有五分之一为房产。

Despite the size of this new property-owning class, it can appear invisible. Beijing limits its citizens to taking $50,000 out of the country each year, but many thousands of Chinese quietly skirt round these capital controls. It is tough to pin down how many buyers there are and how much they spend, because their desire to stay under the radar means they can be secretive. Most money finding its way overseas is channelled through Hong Kong, a semi-autonomous special administrative region (SAR), where Chinese can invest freely.

尽管这一新的资产拥有者群体规模庞大，但明面上却可能看不出来。中国政府对公民每年携带出境的资金限额为5万美元，但是成千上万的中国人悄无声息的避开了这一资本管制。购房者的数量以及他们花费的金额很难判定，因为他们不愿张扬，显得很神秘。大多数资金都通过香港流往海外。香港是一个半自治的特别行政区，在那里中国人可以自由投资。

Not surprisingly, mainland Chinese investors are most evident in Hong Kong itself, where prices for super-luxury homes have nearly doubled in one year. Two-fifths of buyers of homes valued from HK$100m (£8m) upwards are Chinese, estate agency Savills reports. Prices for these properties, which are found in Hong Kong Island’s best areas such as The Peak and Southside, have risen 88 per cent over the past 12 months, says Peter Yuen, deputy managing director of Savills Hong Kong. Prices are rising less fast in the luxury and mass markets where a smaller proportion of buyers are mainlanders, he adds.

不足为奇的是，中国内地投资者的身影在香港最为明显：一年之内香港超豪华住宅的价格近乎翻了一番。房地产经纪公司第一太平戴维斯(Savills)的报告显示，价值1亿港元以上住宅的购房者中，有五分之二都是内地中国人。这些房产均坐落于香港岛最好的区域，如太平山和浅水湾等地，其价格在过去12个月中已经上涨了88%，戴维斯香港的副总经理彼得•袁(Peter Yuen)说。他补充表示，在内地购房者所占比例较小的普通豪宅和大众住宅市场，房价涨幅相对较小。

Chinese buyers of super-luxury homes include businessmen launching companies on Hong Kong’s stock exchange and HNWIs wanting permanent residency, which mainlanders can get by making a capital investment of HK$6.5m or more. This arrangement has led to some Hong Kong politicians wanting permanent residency rules tightened because, they say, the flood of money from Chinese investors is pricing locals out of the property market. Mainlanders are rushing to buy homes in Hong Kong before rules can be changed.

超豪华住宅的内地购房者中，既有所创公司在香港证交所上市的商人，也有想取得香港永久居留权的高净值富人。内地居民在香港投资650万港元或以上即可获得永久居留权。对此一些香港政界人士希望收紧永久居留政策，因为他们声称，内地投资者的资金涌入将香港本地人挤出了楼市。目前内地中国人正抢在政策变化之前在香港买房。

Yuen expects Chinese demand for super-luxury homes to remain buoyant. “Eighty-seven per cent of companies looking for an IPO listing in Hong Kong are from the People’s Republic,” he says, “so it will be very natural for senior staff to have their own accommodation in Hong Kong.”

彼得•袁预计，内地人士对超豪华住宅的需求将持续高涨。“寻求在香港首次公开发行的公司中，有87%来自内地，”他说，“对于企业高层人员来说，在香港有一套自己的住宅实属正常。”

In London, meanwhile, estate agencies are recruiting Mandarin-speaking staff. According to international estate agency Knight Frank, 2.3 per cent of international purchasers in London’s best districts were Chinese in the 12 months to June 2010. The agency reveals that Chinese buyers like period homes in Knightsbridge and Belgravia, and new-build schemes around Canary Wharf and Stratford, where they hope to profit from the regeneration inspired by the 2012 Olympics.

与此同时，在伦敦，地产经纪公司正在招募会讲汉语的员工。据国际地产经纪公司Knight Frank的说法，在截至2010年6月的12个月间，伦敦顶级街区的国际购房者中，有2.3%都是中国人。该公司表示，中国购房者青睐骑士桥和贝尔戈维亚区的老房子，以及位于金丝雀码头和斯特拉德福德的新规划区域的房产——他们希望借助2012年奥运会的重建“东风”来获利。

Many also buy homes to house their children studying in Britain. According to the Chinese embassy, 100,000 Chinese study at British schools and colleges. Learning English is compulsory in Chinese schools, which makes it relatively easy for students to attend British universities. A growing number attend Britain’s public schools. Eton runs a summer school in English language and culture for Chinese schoolboys.

许多人购房是为了让在英国求学的孩子居住。按照中国大使馆的统计，有10万名中国学生在英国中学和高校读书。在中国的学校，英语是必修课，这使得中国学生进入英国大学相对容易。入读英国公立学校的中国学生日益增长。伊顿公学还专门为中国学生开设了一个教授英语及英国文化的暑期班。

Multi-million-pound budgets are not uncommon. Martin Bikhit, managing director of London estate agents Kay & Co, is aware of Chinese investors wanting blocks of between 10 and 50 flats in prime residential areas to let or run as serviced apartments. Guy Meacock, associate at buyers’ agent Prime Purchase, is helping a Chinese couple find a house in Knightsbridge. Their budget is £15m. She is a financial director and her husband floated his media company on the New York Stock Exchange this year. The couple are expecting a child whom they want educated in Britain. They won’t be domiciled in Britain, preferring to move between homes around the world.

数百万英镑的预算在中国购房者当中并不罕见。伦敦房地产代理公司Kay & Co的董事总经理马丁•比克希提(Martin Bikhit)明白，中国投资者希望购买的是有10至50套公寓的黄金住宅区域楼宇，用于出租或作为酒店式公寓。购房者代理公司Prime Purchase的合伙人盖伊•米考克(Guy Meacock)正在帮一对中国夫妇在骑士桥附近寻找房源。这对夫妇的预算是1500万英镑。他的女客户是一位财务主管，其丈夫今年将其媒体公司在纽约证交所上市了。夫妇俩准备要一个孩子，并希望让孩子在英国接受教育。他们不想在英国定居，而是在世界各地的住宅间徙居。

In New York, Kathryn Higgins of DJK Residential says Chinese businessmen buy properties in the $1.5m to $2.5m range for investment or as second homes. “I spent yesterday with a buyer from China who wants two bedrooms, condos only, midtown location, new buildings, lots of amenities, something that will command a high rent,” she says. “The exception to Midtown is Trump Place on Riverside Boulevard.”

在纽约，DJK Residential的凯瑟琳•希金斯(Kathryn Higgins)表示，中国商人通常购买价值在150万至250万美元的房产，或用于投资，或作为第二居所。“我昨天和一位中国购房者在一起，他想买一个位于市中心的新建两居室简易公寓，要求生活设施便利，能够高价租出去，”她说。“除了市中心以外，滨江道上的特朗普广场也可以考虑。”

Patrick William O’Neill, chief executive of US developer The O’Neill Properties Group, told the South China Morning Post that many wealthy Chinese buy property in the US, Canada and Britain to get permanent residency. But it is not just Anglophone countries that are attracting investment. Chinese buyers have also appeared in increasing numbers in Paris this year, says Mark Harvey, Knight Frank’s international residential consultant, who is based in the city. Usually they want secondary market apartments for family use in the prime 7th, 8th and 16th arrondissements, priced from €3m to €6m.

美国开发商奥尼尔地产集团(The O’Neill Properties Group)董事长帕特里克•威廉•奥尼尔(Patrick William O’Neill)对《南华早报》表示，许多中国富人为了获得永久居留权而在美国、加拿大和英国置业。但吸引投资商的不只限于英语国家。驻巴黎的Knight Frank公司国际住宅顾问马克•哈维(Mark Harvey)表示，在巴黎，中国买家的数量也呈上升趋势。他们通常希望购买位于黄金地段的第七、第八和第十六区、可供居家使用的二手公寓，价格在300万欧元至600万欧元之间。

Taiwan began opening up its luxury housing market to Chinese investors in 2009. Expectations that mainland buyers will flood the island following trade deals between the two countries in 2010 have encouraged a rash of speculative property investment on the island by Taiwanese.

2009年，台湾的豪宅市场开始对中国大陆投资者开放。由于市场预计，在内地和台湾签署贸易协议后，2010年将有大量大陆买家蜂拥至台湾，于是台湾人掀起了一股投资岛上房地产的投机风潮。

Aided by the rising Chinese renminbi, investors are also buying property in Japan to let out to their countrymen studying there. (Yields are 8 to 10 per cent, significantly higher than the 2 to 3 per cent available in Shanghai). But what the Chinese crave most in Japan are holiday homes. “Big Chinese cities are as futuristic as anywhere else on earth,” says Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank, yet China’s impoverished countryside affords little in the way of retreats for the rich. “Rural backwaters in Japan with excellent transport and civilised local shops and restaurants are a real novelty.”

得益于人民币的升值，中国投资者也在日本大量置业并出租给在当地学习的中国同胞。（投资收益高达8%至10%，远远高于上海2%至3%的租金收益）。但在日本的中国人最希望购买的是度假别墅。Knight Frank住宅研究中心的总管利亚姆•贝利(Liam Bailey)表示：“中国的大城市和世界其它任何地方一样充满超现代色彩，”但中国贫困的农村鲜有为富人提供休闲的场所。“风貌保存完好的日本乡村有着一流的交通和城市化的当地商店和餐馆，这对中国富人来说乃是真正的新奇所在。”

What does the arrival of the Chinese investor mean for the rest of us? Homeowners in areas targeted by Chinese investors could find the value of their property rise, as the pool of buyers widens. And, if China experiences economic problems, Bailey believes more Chinese may invest in property abroad. “My view is that China is at risk of a bust. There is an argument that any fallout could be positive, with wealthy Chinese targeting offshore locations as their home market struggles.”

中国投资者的到来对我们意味着什么？在中国投资者看上的区域拥有住房的人会发现，随着新买家的加入，他们的物业将不断升值。贝利相信，一旦中国遭遇经济问题，将会有更多的中国人在境外投资物业。“我认为中国有泡沫破灭的风险。有一种观点认为，由于中国富人将在本国市场低迷时把目标对准境外，因此不管形势如何演变，其结果对我们来说都将是积极的。”

A former president of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, Nick Brooke is now chairman of Hong Kong-based company Professional Property Services, where he advises on cross-border investment in China. He believes that China’s capital controls will not stop its people from becoming the world’s biggest property investors over the next decade: “I think we are going to see a substantial increase in outward flows and this will continue to have an impact on markets and values, particularly in Asia.”

尼克•布鲁克(Nick Brooke)是英国皇家特许测量师协会前会长，现任香港公司Professional Property Services董事长，从事在中国跨境投资的顾问服务。他认为，中国的资本管制不会阻止中国人在未来十来年内成为世界上最大的房地产投资者。“我认为我们将看到外流资金大幅增长，这将对房产市场和物业价值产生持续影响，在亚洲尤其如此。”

The Chinese-assisted boom in Hong Kong’s super-luxury homes market is likely to be be repeated elsewhere, Brooke says. “I see Singapore and Kuala Lumpur as potential future targets,” he says. “It is all about diversification but within an asset class to which they relate and like. The Chinese are coming.”

中国人助推的香港超豪华住宅市场的繁荣很可能将在其它地方重演。布鲁克说： “我认为未来的潜在目标是新加坡和吉隆坡，”他说。“这与他们的投资多元化有关，但也仅限于与他们相关并且他们钟意的资产类别。中国人来势汹汹。”