为什么美国需要中国？

Why does the U.S. need China?

为什么美国需要中国？

Editor's note: Li Daokui is director of the Center for China in the World Economy at Tsinghua University in Beijing and also adviser to the China's Central Bank.

编者按：李稻葵是北京清华大学世界经济研究系的中心主任，同时也是央行的顾问。

Beijing, China (CNN) -- The United States needs China for two simple reasons: China can make a difference in the world after the financial crisis, and more importantly China's fundamental interests are aligned with the United States.

中国，北京（CNN)——美国需要中国，最简单的两个理由就是：中国在世界经济危机后在全世界发挥了必要的作用，最重要的还是，中国很多的切身利益与美国是一致的。

It is obvious that China can make a difference in the world today and tomorrow. China is the world's leading exporter of manufactured goods. A sudden appreciation of its currency would inevitably export inflation to the rest of the world, which is not welcome by American families struggling to find jobs. China holds the world's largest currency reserves, enough to buy up the share prices in New York or sell down the yield curve of the T-bond.

很明显，在今天的世界，甚至以后的世界，中国将发挥它的影响力。中国是一个全世界最大的制成品出口商，它的货币政策如果突然性的改变一下，世界其他国家将会出现通货膨胀的情况，这对于那些正在竞争找工作的美国家庭来说并不是一件好事。中国拥有世界最大的货币储备金，足以买下纽约所有的股价，或者降低美国长期国库券的收率曲线。

Halfway into industrialization, China has become one of the largest emitters of global warming gas -- understandable, as it has followed the growth path of the West. Whether China can creatively find a new approach to modernization holds the key to the success of mitigating global warming. Last but not least, developing countries, including those in Africa, are watching carefully what China is doing. If China can be successful in achieving a balanced, sustainable and green growth, many other emerging economies will follow.

半成熟的工业化，让中国成为全球最大的二氧化碳排放国之一——这些事可以理解的，因为中国现在再走过去西方国家发展的道路。不知道中国是否能够创造性的找到一条新的方案迈向属于中国的现代化，找到成功降低二氧化塘排放量的关键的钥匙呢？最后一点，也是最重要的一点，发展中国家，也包括非洲的那些国家，他们都在密切关注中国的下一个步骤。如果中国能够成功的找到一个平衡点，持久且坚持绿色的发展道路，那么其他的新兴国家将会跟着中国的步伐走。

Does this mean that the United States and the West have lost their dominance in the world? Not at all! The West still enjoys the highest living standard and best educational achievement, still possesses the world's most important and relevant technologies, be it military or green, and still maintains by far the most formidable military power. Perhaps, most important to me as an economist, the West was not only the builder but also the most skillful mover and shaker in today's international institutions. The United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the G-20 were all initiated in the West. The most skillful professionals working in China are from the West or trained in the West. The most useful working language is English.

这是否就意味着美国和西方国家已经失去他们的优势了呢？不是的！西方国家仍然享受着最高的生活水平和最好的教学设施，仍然掌控了世界最重要且最关键的技术，不管是军事还是绿化，他们到目前为止仍然掌控者最强大的军事力量。或许，对于我这个经济学者最重要的是，在今天的国际社会中，西方国家不仅是建设者，同时也是最巧妙地掌权者。联合国，国际货币基金组织，世界银行，G-20峰会都是有西方国家创立的。在中国工作的那些做优秀的技术人员都是来自西方国家，或者是在西方受过训练的。世界上的通用语言是英语。

The most important point the United States and the West need to understand: In today's post-crisis world, China's fundamental interests are aligned with the West. It is in China's fundamental interest to contribute to the world's economic rebalancing and to continued peace and prosperity.

美国和西方国家需要明白的最重要的一点是：在今天危机后的世界，中国的基本利益和西方国家是一致的。中国的基本礼仪有助于促进世界经济惊醒重整，并让它持续保持平和和繁荣。

China's policy makers understand the need to reduce its trade surplus in order to reduce its exposure to international economic volatility. They realize that their household income needs to increase faster in order to boost domestic income and to bring real benefits of economic growth to its population. They also understand that China's growth of energy consumption must come down, relying more upon green energy and recycled materials. This awareness and commitment can be found in black and white in various official policy papers including the recent Guide to the next Five Year Development Program.

中国的决策者明白，必须减少中国的贸易顺差，好让中国在变化的世界经济中减少自己的收支差。他们意识到大家的家庭收入必须大幅度提高，这样才能提高全体人民的收入水平，这样才能给中国人民带来真正的经济增长的收益。他们也知道，中国发展中的能源消耗必须要降低，推行绿色能源和可回收材料。这种认识和保证在很多的白字黑字的政治文件中可以看到，包括最近的下一个五年发展计划项目。

In fact, progress has been made in China in rebalancing growth. This year alone, trade surplus is likely to be below four percent of GDP, coming down from nine percent before the finance crisis and five percent last year. Imports are growing much faster than exports. Household consumption is outpacing GDP by five percent.

事实上，中国的重整发展取得了一定的成绩。仅今年，贸易顺差有可能比GDP低四个百分点，并经济危机前的就个百分点和去年的五个百分点还要低。进口商品的量比出口商品增长量还要高。生活用电需量超过GDP五个百分点。

How have these been achieved? Exchange rate appreciation is not the most important factor. The driving factors are domestic forces. Wage rates of the exporting sector have increased by 20 percent this year. Taxes were cut for some consumption goods. Importing inland regions are encouraged to grow much faster than exporting coastal areas. Structural changes are much more fundamental than nominal appreciation.

这些成绩是如何取得的呢？汇率增值不是最重要的因素。最大的推动力是国内的力量。出口部门的工资率在今年提高到了20%。一些消费片的税收已经被取消了。进口到中国的内陆的商品在有关部门的鼓励政策下，比出口到沿海地区的商品还要多。结构的根本改变比表面的增值重要的多。

The exchange rate dispute is the most counterproductive debate in the world. Appreciation does not work like a magic wand. In the Chinese case, against the background five percent general cost increase and 20 percent exporting sector wage increases, anything beyond a gradual appreciation will directly translate into a price hike to the American or European buyers, since in the short run, the option of switching from Chinese producers to others is not available, and the Chinese firms have to mark up their export prices in order to survive.

汇率是纠纷是世界上最适得其反的争论。所谓的增值不是像一根魔术棒那样。以中国为例，在反对言论的背后是五个百分点的增长，还有20%的出口部门所进行的各项提升，任何事情都是需要平缓过渡的，而最终则会演变成美国和欧洲国家的购买者的一个价格的提升，在短期对未来，中国的制造者对其他东西的选择权是没办法使用的，而中国的厂商则必须提高他们的出口产品的价格，才能生存。

The end outcome of such a rapid appreciation is continued trade surplus with inflation in the West, which in turn brings in more expectation of nominal appreciation, causing capital flowing from the United States into China for arbitrage, offsetting the impact of Quantitative Easing (QE2) in the U.S. economy. Moreover, this scenario provides juice to conspiracy theories that renminbi (RMB) appreciation and the QE2 are just contrivances to undermine the Chinese and developing countries' modernization process.

这种快速升值的最后结果就是在西方国家形成长久的贸易顺差和通货膨胀，这样会带来更多的名义上的升值，让更多的从美国到中国的物品流动套利了，转移了美国经济上量化宽松的影响。此外，这种政策还会提供了依稀阴谋论，说人民币升值和伊丽莎白二世形成了破坏中国和发展中国家的现代化进程。

The continued dispute on the RMB exchange rate may well be the saddest tragedy of economic policy making in the post-crisis world, since both the Chinese and U.S. sides share the same fundamental interest of rebalancing trade and growth but in the end ruin each other's endeavors. It is like the captains of two giant ships spending precious time arguing about the best techniques to steer the course and causing the ships to eventually collide.

持续的关于人民币汇率升值的讨论或许是危机后所指定的经济政策中最失败的一种，中国和美国将平分重整后的商业和发展的基本利益，但最终，者都将会破坏个自己的努力。这就好像两艘大船的船长花费宝贵的时间争论什么事最后的工具区掌控航向，最终导致两船相撞了。

In a larger context, the G-20 is perhaps the only tangible reward to the world in the wake of the financial crisis. Let us hope the leaders will not waste the precious good will and political capital on senseless issues like the exchange rate. Rather, they need to work on something much more relevant and effective to mitigate global imbalances, to reinvigorate growth and to avoid future crises.

在一个大的环境中，G-20仅仅只是尾随而来的经济危机的一种回报。让我们大家一起祈祷，领导者们不要浪费宝贵的善意和政治资本在像汇率这一类无知的议题上了。当然啦，他们必须找出一些相关的切有效的缓和全球气候变暖的措施，一起复兴发展并预防下一个危机。