CNN专访温家宝实录(9.23)【中英文对照】

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CNN专访温家宝实录
2010年9月23日中国总理温家宝在访问希腊期间接受了CNN专题节目主持人法里德?扎卡里亚(Fareed Zakaria )的专访。
法里德· 扎卡里亚是CNN星期天的Fareed Zakaria GPS专题节目主持人,以下是此次专访的全文(为方便起见,主持人卡扎利亚将用字母Z代替,而温家宝总理将以其姓氏简称):
【中文部分】
Z:你认为当前全球经济形势是稳定,而且充满活力的吗?你是否担心出现所谓的“二次探底”,导致美国经济再一次进入衰退?
温:客观的说,我认为当前全球经济正在复苏,尽管这个复苏的过程有些漫长,充满曲折。不同的人有不同的看法,但是我相信现实给我们好好上了一课。我希望美国经济能够快速的恢复,因为美国经济实力毕竟是世界上最强大的。
奥巴马总统最近的一些经济政策,包括美国出口倍增以及对基础设施大量投资的计划,是解决问题的正确之道。尽管这些政策来得稍晚了一些,但总算及时。
这让我想起了我决定四万亿投资刺激中国经济的时候。当时人们对这一政策有着各式各样的看法,但是现在的经济态势显示我们一揽子刺激计划是有效的,成功的
Z:你的经济刺激计划,从占GDP的百分比来说,是美国计划的十倍, 真是一个异乎寻常的举动。是否存在这样的担心,如此巨量的投资将在中国的房地产市场产生泡沫?政府投资了这么多钱,是否会带来通货膨胀呢?现在投资计划减弱了,有没有什么影响?政府的钱会不会不够?
温:从你的问题来看,我认为你并没有对我们的刺激计划有一个全面的了解。我们的经济刺激计划有四个重要的组成部分:1.大规模的公共投资,结构性的减税以及基础设施的建设。2.调整和升级产业结构。3.科技创新以及发展有战略意义的新兴产业。4.改进社会保障体系。整个4万亿人民币的投资计划并不是都来自于公共财政,政府只提供其中1.18万亿人民币,余下的会从非公有市场以及金融市场中筹措。刺激计划的实行,保证了中国经济的持续稳定和快速发展。它帮助中国经济能够保持30年来快速发展的好势头,同时也让我们避免了中国现代化进程,由于外部条件剧烈变化而产生大的波动。同时,经济刺激计划为将来中国经济的发展打下了坚实的基础,我们对在你问题中提到的那些挑战保持着高度的警觉。
我从三个方面回答你:第一,中国确实存在通货膨胀的风险,这也是我们提出要小心调整好社会稳定、经济快速发展、经济结构调整和管理通胀预期这一重要任务的原因。这是中国宏观经济调控的核心。我对中国管理通胀预期确实存在担忧,这也是一直以来我着重要妥善管理的地方,因为我认为腐败以及通货膨胀会对我国政权的稳定造成负面的影响。这两个问题都需要广大人民群众对政府的信任和支持。这是我对中国通胀问题的看法。
第二,随着经济刺激计划的实施,地方政府会有一定财政金融上的风险。地方政府有融资工具,也有一定的债务。但这并不是一个经济危机之后才存在的新问题,其实在1980年代中国就已经存在。现在地方政府通过各种融资渠道,累计了7.6万亿人民币的债务。地方一级的这些债务,仍然在我们可以管控的范围内。但是在地方政府层面妥善的管理这些债务是很重要的,以免对公共财政和金融部门带来风险。预算赤字占中国GDP的比例为3%,而中国所有债务占GDP的比例是20%。也就是说,目前仍然在我们可控的范围之内。
第三方面,当前所有的投资必须要有利于我们经济结构的调整,而不是阻碍。这一点有关我们长期的发展前景因此显得尤为重要。
Z:冒昧的问一句,你从金融危机中学习到了什么?你是否对美国宏观经济的管理失去了信心?一个中国朋友这样对我说:“我们就像课堂上的学生,听美国的教导,但是现在看看,可能这个老师也不知道他在讲什么”
温:在金融危机面前,任何对国家,对全体人类有责任感的人都会从中学习。我学到最重要的一课是,在管理国家事务时,关注经济结构非常重要。中国在发展过程中取得了巨大的进步,赢得了世界的赞誉。然而,包括我在内的一些人,很早就表明我们的经济发展仍然缺少平衡性、协调性和可持续性。金融危机加强了我的这一观点。一方面,我们必须要防止金融危机的影响,另一方面,我们仍然要强调我们自己的问题。这两个方面的工作要同时做好是很难的。
中国有巨大的国内市场,内需有相当大的潜力。中国仍然处于加速城市化和工业化的阶段。刺激国内需求可以巩固并进一步促进经济发展。这就要求我们必须抓住机会,提高发展速度,稳定中国经济。在这一基础上,我们必须着眼长远,清楚的意识到在经济结构中的各种挑战。至于美国的经济,我始终认为它有牢固的基础,不仅仅是在物质上,更重要的,在科技和管理人才这两方面都有着强大的力量。200年来美国在经济发展上积累了丰富的经验,尽管其中有曲折往复,但是我相信,美国会克服各种困难,度过这一次金融危机,要对美国经济的前景充满信心。
Z:你曾经撰文纪念过你曾经的领导,胡耀邦。这篇文章给我留下很深的印象,在其中你高度赞扬了他。回顾过去,你认为胡耀邦是一个杰出的中国领导人吗?
温:是的。我想我给他的历史做出了一个公允的评价。他为中国的改革开放做出了贡献。第一,他大力推动了有关真理标准的大讨论,通过这一讨论,他为中国解放思想工作做出了重要的贡献。第二,面对众多阻力,他毫不畏惧,为在文革中遭受迫害的广大党政干部平反冤假错案。第三,他采取行动,切实推进了中国的改革开放事业。
Z:在你的演讲中,你提到从经济上看,中国依然不是一个强大的创新型国家。有着如此多的言论自由限制以及互联网管制怎么可以成为一个强大的创新型国家呢?难道不应该取消这些限制吗?
温:我认为言论自由对每一个国家,不论是发展中国家还是发达国家,都是必不可少的。中国宪法保障言论自由。我认为在这一点上你并不了解中国。在中国,有4亿左右的互联网用户和8亿左右的移动电话用户。他们可以接入网络,表达他们的观点,包括批评意见。我在网上经常能看到对政府工作的尖锐批评和建设性意见。我经常说,不但要让人们享有言论自由,更重要的是,要创造条件让他们能够对政府的工作提出批评。只有人民能够监督和批评,政府才会做得更好,公务员才是真正的为人民服务。当然,监督和批评必须在宪法和法律允许的范围内。这样国家才会有秩序,秩序对于一个有13亿人口的国家来说是更为重要的。
Z:温总理,说实话,我去中国的时候,发现很多我要上的网站都被屏蔽掉了,非常难以获得资讯,似乎任何挑战共产党政治地位的言论都是不允许的。比如胡耀邦,直到您写的文章出版,在《人民日报》上从未被提起。给我的感觉就是这些限制——对互联网监控的这些设备,让你的人民很难真正有创造性,去做那些你想让他们做的事。
温:我相信,我和所有的中国人民都有这样的信念,那就是中国会有持续的进步,人民对民主和自由的向往和需求是无法阻挡的。我希望你能慢慢看到中国正在持续的进步。
Z:在过去几周,你做了一些非常有意思的演讲,在深圳的讲话真的把我震住了,你说“不仅要经济体制改革,还要推进政治体制改革”。这也是在我们上一次专访中你的观点。但是很多中国人说过去六七年间,经济体制倒是在不断改革,但是政治体制改革并没有多少。那些听你的演讲的人,他们说“我喜欢温总理的讲话,但是我们并没有看到政治体制改革的行动啊”,你对此有什么看法?
温:其实,政治体制改革是在多年以前由邓小平提出并推动的,我想任何一个对国家有责任感的人都应该对这一点深入思考并投诸行动。上次见面之后我对这一问题展开了更深入的思考,我的想法是,一个政党在取得政权之后,应该要和在取得政权的过程中不一样才对。最大的区别就是,政党的活动应该要符合宪法和法律的规定。政党的政策和主张可以通过合法途径上升到宪法和法律的高度。任何党派、组织和个人都不得有超过宪法和法律的特权,必须以宪法为根本的活动准则。我认为这是现代政治体系中的重要特征。我将我的政治理念归纳为四句话:让人有尊严的幸福生活,让人感到安全可靠,让社会充满公正,让人对未来充满信心。
尽管社会上存在各种各样的议论,尽管存在各种各样的阻挠,我仍然要坚定不移在我能力范围内,贯彻我的理念,加快政治改革的步伐。
我想用两个词来表达我的决心“风雨无阻,至死方休”。
Z:货币问题最近又成为了热点,让我这样提这个问题:在得到中国的保证后,人民币在过去两年只升值了1.8%。中国对人民币再多升值一些难道不感兴趣吗?
最近,中国通过压榨普通工人,对出口进行了隐形的补贴。这样就会有通胀的风险,造成了你刚刚提到的缺乏平衡性。因此,人民币汇率要再提高难道不是一件好事情吗?
温:我想你的观点仍然是美国的观点,或者说,美国国会中一小撮人的观点。中美两国经济联系紧密,双边贸易已经超过300亿美元,美国在中国的投资已经超过60亿美元,中国已经购买了超过900亿美元的美国国债。
没有人会相信中国的领导人没有紧跟美国经济的发展。然而,一些美国人,特别是美国国会里面的一些人,对中国缺乏全面的了解。他们将中美关系中的问题政治化,特别是两国贸易不平衡这一问题。我认为这不是一件好事。
我感谢你给我这个专访的机会,因为你让我能够更进一步解释实际的情况。有关汇率和中国贸易顺差,有三个要点往往是大家都不了解的:1.中国并没有主动追求顺差。我们外贸的目标是在各国交易中维持平衡和可持续贸易,我们希望在我们的支付科目中能够达到基本的平衡。这是我们一直在强调和行动的。在2008年,中国的贸易顺差占GDP的比重是9.9%,2009年这一比例下降到5.8%。2010年的上半年的数字是2.2%。2.一个国家贸易顺差的增长和它的货币政策并没有直接的联系。从1994年开始,人民币启动了改革汇率的进程,从那时算起,人民币兑美元汇率上升了55个百分点,同时,主要经济体和中国周边国家的货币大幅度的贬值。中国对外贸易的急速提高也是在这一时段。实际上,在美国历史上也有这么一段时间,19世纪70年代到20世纪70年代,美国是一个贸易顺差的国家。这一现象,是国家发展的必经阶段。第三点是更为重要的一点,你恐怕也知道,中美两国贸易不平衡的问题主要是结构性的。中国在加工贸易上有顺差但是在一般贸易上存在逆差。交易物品上中国有顺差,但是在交易服务,在交易服务上有逆差。中国在和美国以及欧盟的国际贸易中有顺差,但是在和日本,韩国以及东盟国家的交易中存在逆差。很多出口到美国的商品在美国已经是不生产我想也不可能再重新生产了的——那些附加值比较低的产品。即便美国人不从中国买这些产品,你们也会从印度、斯利兰卡或者孟买购买。这并不能解决两国之间贸易不平衡的问题。
我回忆起你曾经举过有关ipod的例子。在美国一个ipod售价是299美元,但是加工ipod的中国工厂只能从中获得4美元的加工费。
还有一点可能你和国会中诸君都不太了解,在华的5万美国公司中,2万2千家是出口公司,制裁中国的出口公司无异于制裁美国的公司。
Z:上次我们谈话的时候,我问你当时你在读什么书以及什么书比较有趣。那在过去几个月有没有什么事,有没有什么书让你印象深刻呢?
温:我的书架上经常摆着的是有关历史的书因为我相信“以史为鉴,可以知兴替”。中外的历史书我都很爱读。在我出差的时候,我一般会随身携带两本书,一本是亚当斯密的道德情操论,另一本是沉思录。我并不是同意这两本书中的所有观点,但是我相信古人的理想和思考会为今人提供思考的食粮。现在有太多自夸自卖的回忆录,我并不喜欢读。我相信一个人应该留给世界的是真相——那些真实的东西,但即使是真实的东西也终将消散。
Z:最后一个问题,温总理,你的坦诚让我感动。你刚才提到你不管国内党内的阻碍有多大你都要继续推动政治体制改革的决心,你对于腐败和通胀会动摇社会稳定的忧虑,以及对胡耀邦领导能力的赞扬,即使他是一个危险的“自由化”领袖。
你相信中国即将上台的新一代领导人,会和你有共同的远景吗?他们会不断努力深化你正在力推的事业吗?
温:你可能认为这是今天最难回答的问题,但在我看来这很容易。我从两点回答你有关未来的问题。
1.正如中国老话说的“长江后浪推前浪,一代新人换旧人”,对中国未来领导人超过他们的前任我深有信心。
2.是人民以及人民的力量决定了国家的前途和历史。人民的希望和意愿不会止息,顺之者昌,逆之者亡。谢谢你的专访!
Z:这是我的荣幸,谢谢你温总理。
【英文对照】
FAREED ZAKARIA, HOST, "FAREED ZAKARIA GPS":
Do you feel that the global economy is, at this point, stable and strong?
Or do you worry a lot that there is a danger of the so-called double dip, that
the United States, in particular, could go back into a recession?
PREMIER WEN JIABAO, CHINA (through translator):  Well,
objectively speaking, I think the world economy is recovering,
although the process of recovery is a slow and torturous one.  People
may not have the same view on this matter, but I believe we will learn
a lesson from the reality.  I hope that there will be a quick recovery
of the U.S. economy, because, after all, the U.S. economy is the
largest in the world.
I have taken note of the recent policies and measures taken by
President Obama, including the program of doubling the United States
exports and the massive investment in infrastructural development.  I
think these passes and measures are the ones on the right track,
moving in the right direction.  Although they came a little bit late,
they still came in time.
This reminds me of the time when I took the big decision of
advancing a massive stimulus package in China.  Back then, people had
different views concerning this policy.  But now, the progress has
shown that our stimulus package is a successful one.
ZAKARIA:  Your stimulus package was 10 times larger, as a
percentage of your GDP, than -- than the U.S. one.  It was an
extraordinary program.
Is there a worry that it has -- it has produced a bubble in
China, in real estate? Are there dangers of inflation because the
government spent so much money? And what happens now that that
stimulus is going to wear off? There will be less and less government
spending.
WEN:  From what you said, I think you have not seen our
stimulus package in its full or in its entirety.  I would like to say
that our stimulus package has four key components.
The first is massive public spending, structural tax cuts and
infrastructural development.
The second is the adjustment and upgrading of industrial
structure in China.
The third is scientific and technological innovation and the
development of emerging industries with strategic significance.
The fourth is the improvement of social safety net. The $4
trillion RMB Yuan investment does not all come from the government.
Public finance only accounts for $1.18 trillion RMB Yuan and
the rest will come from the non-public sector and fundraising from
financial markets.
The implementation of the stimulus package has insured the
continuance of steady and relatively fast economic growth in China.
It has helped maintain the good momentum of China's economic
development in the past 30 years and it has helped us avoid major
fluctuations in the process of China's modernization because of a
severe external shock.
At the same time, it has laid a solid foundation for future
development of the Chinese economy.  We are on high alert against the
challenge that you referred to in your question.
Let me make three points. First, there is a possibility of
inflation in China.
That is why we have formulated the task of skillfully manage
the relations between maintaining steady and relatively fast economic
development, structural adjustment and managing inflation
expectations.  This is at the core of China's macroeconomic control.
I do have worry for the management of inflation expectations
in China.  And that is something that I have been trying very hard to
manage appropriately and well, because I believe corruption and
inflation will have an adverse impact on stability of power in our
country.  And these two both concern the trust and support of people
in the government.  And this is the perspective that I see the issue
of inflation in China.
Second, with implementation of the stimulus package, there are
fiscal and financial risks at the level of local governments.  We have
some financing vehicles of local governments.  They have some debts.
But this is not a new problem that took place after the break
-- outbreak of the financial crisis.  Rather, this already came into
being back in the 1980s.
Now, with the financing platforms of local governments in
place, they have accumulated a total debt about $7.6 trillion RMB
Yuan.
And I can say that this debt, at the local level, is still
within a range that we can manage.  But it is important that we
appropriately handle this matter to ensure that the debts at local
governments' level will not bring about risks in our public finance
and in the financial sector.
The ratio of budget deficit in China's total GDP is within 3
percent. The total debts in China versus GDP's ratio is within 20
percent range.
That is to say, it's still in the range that we can manage.
The third point is a more important one, that is, all our
investment now must be conducive to our economic structural
adjustment, not the contrary.  This concerns our long-term development
prospects and therefore is of high importance.
ZAKARIA: May I ask you what lesson you have drawn from the
financial crisis? Have you lost faith in American macroeconomic
management?
A Chinese friend said to me, he said, "We were like the
students in class and we would always listen to what the Americans
would tell us."  And now we look up, and we think, "Maybe the teacher
actually didn't know what he was talking about."
WEN: In the face of the financial crisis, any person who has a
sense of responsibility towards the country, and towards the entire
human race should learn lessons from the financial crisis. As far as
I'm concerned, the biggest lesson that I have drawn from the financial
crisis is that, in managing the affairs of a country, it's important
to pay close attention to addressing the structural problems in the
economy.
China has achieved enormous progress in its development,
winning acclaim around the world. Yet, I was one of the first ones to
argue that our economic development still lacks balance, coordination,
and sustainability. This financial crisis has reinforced my view on
this point. On the one hand, we must tackle the financial crisis; on
the other, we must continue to address our own problems. And we must
do these two tasks well at the same time, and this is a very difficult
one.
China has a vast domestic market. And there is a great
potential in China's domestic demand. China is at a stage of
accelerated urbanization and industrialization. We can rely on
stimulating domestic demand to stabilize and further grow the Chinese
economy. This requires us that we must seize the opportunities, speed
up our development, and stabilize the Chinese economy.
And on that basis, we must take a long term perspective to
address all these structural challenges in our economy. As far as the
US economy is concerned, I always believe that the U.S. economy is
solidly based, not only in a material sense, but more importantly, the
United States has the strength of scientific and technological talent,
and managerial expertise.
It has accumulated a wealth of experience in its economic
development over the past...more than 200 years. In spite of the
twists and turns, the United States, I believe, will tide over the
crisis and difficulties, and we must have confidence in the prospects
of the U.S. economy.
The recovery and further growth of the largest economy in the
world-that is, the U.S. economy-is in the interest of the recovery and
stability of the world economy.
[BREAK]
ZAKARIA:  You -- you wrote an article about your old boss, Hu
Yaobang, which I was very struck by.  In it, you praised him.  Do you
think, in retrospect, that Hu Yaobang was a very good leader of China?
WEN:  Yes.  I think I have given a fair assessment of the
history of this person.  He made his own contributions to China's
reform and opening up.  I want to make the following three points.
First, he vigorously advanced the debate surrounding the
criteria in judging what truth is.  And through that, he has
contributed to the effort of freeing people's minds.
Second, irrespective of various resistance, he took steps to
free a large number of officials and cadres who were wronged in the
Cultural Revolution.
And, third, he himself took actions to advance China's reform
and opening up.
ZAKARIA:  You - you speak,  in your speeches, about how China
is not yet a strong and creative nation in terms of its economy.
Can you be a strong and creative nation with so many
restrictions on freedom of expression, with the Internet being
censored?  Don't you need to open all that up if you want true
creativity?
WEN:  I believe freedom of speech is indispensable for any
country,  a country in the course of development and a country that
has become strong.  Freedom of speech has been incorporated into the
Chinese constitution.
I don't think you know all about China on this point.  In
China, there are about 400 million Internet users and 800 million
mobile phone subscribers.
They can access the Internet to express their views, including
critical views.  I often log onto the Internet and I have read sharp
critical comments on the work of the government, on the Internet and
also there are commendable words about the work of the government.
I often say that we should not only let people have the
freedom of speech.  We,  more importantly,  must create conditions to
let them criticize the work of the government.  And it is only when
there is the supervision and critical oversight from the people that
the government will be in a position to do an even better job and
employees of government departments will be the true public servants
of the people.
All these must be conducted within the range allowed by the
constitution and the laws.
So that the country will have a normal order.  And that is all
the more necessary for such a large country as China, with 1.3 billion
people.
ZAKARIA:  Premier Wen  -- since we are being honest, when I
come to China and I try to use the Internet, there are many sites that
are blocked.  It is difficult to get information.  Any opinion that
seems to challenge the political primacy of the,  of the party is not
allowed.  Hu Yaobang, for example, was not somebody who could be
mentioned in the - in "The China Daily" until your own article
appeared.  It just feels to me like all these restrictions -- this --
the vast apparatus that monitors the Internet are -- are going to make
it difficult for your people to truly be creative and to truly do what
it seems you wish them to do.
WEN:  I believe I and all the Chinese people have such a
conviction that China will make continuous progress and the people's
wishes for and needs for democracy and freedom are irresistible.  I
hope that you will be able to gradually see the continuous progress of
China.
ZAKARIA:  You have given a - a series of very interesting
speeches in the last few weeks -- the last few months.  I was
particularly struck by one you gave in Shenzhen, where you said,
"Along with economic reform, we must keep doing political reform."
This is a point you made in our last interview.  But a lot of people I
know in China -- Chinese people say there has been economic reform
over the last six or seven years, but there has not been much
political reform.
What do you say to people who listen to your speeches and they
say, "We love everything Wen Jiabao says, but we don't see the actions
of political reform?"
WEN:  Actually, this is a viewpoint that was put forward by
Mr. Deng Xiaoping a long time ago.
And I think anyone who has a sense of responsibility for his
country should have deep thinking about this topic and put what he
believes into action.
I have done some deeper thinking about this topic since we
last met.  My view is that a political party, after it becomes a
ruling party,  should be somewhat different from the one when it was
struggling for power.
The biggest difference should be that this political party
should act in accordance with the constitution and the law.
The policies and propositions of a political party can be
translated into parts of the constitution and the laws through
appropriate legal procedures.  All political parties, organizations
and all people should abide by the constitution and laws without any
exception.  They must all act in accordance with the constitution and
laws.
I see that as a defining feature of modern political system development.
I have summed up my political ideals into the following four sentences.
To let everyone lead a happy life with dignity.  To let
everyone feel safe and secure.  To let the society be one with equity
and justice and to let everyone have confidence in the future.
In spite of the various discussions and views in the society
and in spite of some resistance, I will act in accordance with these
ideals unswervingly and advance, within the realm of my capabilities,
political restructuring.
I would like to tell you the following two sentences to
reinforce my case on this or my view on this point, that is, I will
not fall in spite of a strong wind and harsh rain and I will not yield
till the last day of my life.
[BREAK]
ZAKARIA: The currency issue is a difficult one, the renminbi.
Let me put it to you this way: despite assurances from China, the
renminbi has only appreciated 1.8% in the last two years. Is it not in
China's interest to allow for more significant appreciation?
Because right now, you are subsidizing exporters at the cost
of the wages of the ordinary Chinese workers. You're risking some
inflation. And it creates the very lack of balance that you talk
about. So, wouldn't it be good for China to allow a more substantial
appreciation of the renminbi?
WEN JIABAO, PREMIER OF CHINA: Allow me to make a comment on
what you just said. I think your view still represents the view of the
United States. Or, to be more specific, the view of a small number of
members of Congress of the United States.
The Chinese economy and the US economy are closely interconnected.
Our bilateral trade has already reached 300 billion U.S.
dollars. US investment in China has exceeded 60 billion US dollars.
China has purchased US T-Bonds worth about 900 billion US dollars.
No one will believe that the Chinese leadership does not
follow closely the development of the US economy. Yet, some people in
the United States, in particular some in the US Congress, do not know
fully about China. They are politicizing the problems in China-US
relations-in particular, the trade imbalance between our two
countries.
I don't think this is the right thing to do.
I highly appreciate you giving me this opportunity of the
interview, because you gave me the opportunity to further explain what
the real situation is. There are three points which are not widely
known with regard to exchange rate of RMB and China's trade surplus.
First, China does not pursue a trade surplus.
Our objective in having foreign trade is to have balance and
sustainable trade with other countries, and we want to have a basic
equilibrium in our balance of payments. This is what we have been
saying and doing.
In 2008, China's surplus and current accounts ratio in GDP
stood at 9.9 percent. On 2009, that figure dropped to 5.8 percent.
And in the first half of 2010, that figure further declined to 2.2
percent.
Second, the increase of a trade surplus of a country is not
necessarily linked with the exchange policy of that country.  We
started the reform of RMB exchange rate regime back in the 1994.  And
since then, the Chinese currency has appreciated by 55 percent against
the U.S. dollar.
And over the same time frame, the currencies of major
economies and currencies of China's neighboring countries have all
depreciated by a large margin.
China's trade has been growing fast over the same time frame.
Actually, there is a period like that in the history of the United
States, too.  In the almost 100 years between the 1870s and 1970s, the
United States was a surplus country.
And this is actually what would happen for a country in a
certain stage of development.
The third point, which is a more important one and one that
you are aware of, that is, the trade imbalance between our two
countries is mainly structural in nature.  China runs a trade surplus
in processing trade but a deficit in general trade.  China has a trade
surplus in trade in goods, but a deficit in trade in services -- in
services.
We have a trade surplus with the United States and the
European Union, but a deficit with Japan, the ROK  and ASEAN
countries.  Many of the Chinese exports to the United States are no
longer produced in the U.S. and I don't believe that the United States
will restart the production of those products -- products which are at
the low end of the value added chain.  Even if you don't buy those
products from China, you still have to buy them from India, Sri Lanka
or Bangladesh.  And that will not help resolve the trade imbalance
between our two countries.
I remember that you gave the example of iPod player in the
United States. An iPod player is sold at $299 in the States.  But the
Chinese producer only gets $4 in processing fee.
There is another point that I think you may not be aware of, a
point that many of the members of the U.S. Congress are not aware of.
That is, out of the 50,000 U.S. companies registered in China, 22,000
of them are export companies and to impose sanctions on export
companies in China is tantamount to imposing sanctions on U.S.
companies.
[BREAK]
ZAKARIA: You know, the last time we talked, I, we, we, I asked
you what books you were reading and what books you - you found
interesting.  Is there some thing, some book you've read in the last
few months that you .that has impressed you?
WEN: Well the books that are always on my shelves are books
about history because I believe history is like a mirror and I like to
read both Chinese history and history of foreign countries.
There are two books that I often travel with. One is the
Theory on Moral Sentiments by Adam Smith.  The other is The
Meditations.
It's not that I agree with all the views expressed in the
books.  But I believe ideas and thoughts of older generation can offer
food for thought for the current generation. There are too many
memoirs selling one-self nowadays.  I don't like reading those books.
I believe what a person should leave behind to the world is truth -
something true. And we must recognize that even truthful will things
will dissipate one day."
ZAKARIA:  Let me ask you, as our final question, Premier Wen.
This has struck me as a -- as an example of your frankness.  You have
spoken of your determination to continue political reform despite
obstructions within the country and within the party - despite
opposition within the party.  You've spoken of your fear that
corruption and inflation will erode social stability.  You've praised
Hu Yaobang and talked about the wise leadership he provided, even
though he was regarded by many as a -- as a dangerously liberal
leader.
Do you believe that the next generation of Chinese leaders,
who will take power in - in two years, will share your outlook and
keep trying to press the vision you are pressing forward?
WEN:  You may think that have you asked the toughest question
today, but I think it is actually the easiest question to answer.  Let
me make two points with regard to that future you referred to.
First, I would like to say that, as the Chinese saying goes,
as the Yangtze River forges ahead waves upon waves, the new generation
will invariably surpass the old.  I have confidence that future
Chinese leadership will excel the previous one.
Second, it is the people and the strength of the people who
determine the future of the country and history.  The wish and will of
the people are not stoppable.  Those who go along with the trend will
thrive and those who go against the trend will fail.
Thank you for the interview.
ZAKARIA:  It's an honor and a pleasure. Thank you, Premier.