神马文学网什么是未来十年的最佳投资
来源：百度文库 编辑：神马文学网 时间：2024/04/25 12:58:25
Yes, we know how the last 10 years panned out. What investors really want to know is what will be the best investments for the next 10 years? Which markets, sectors and stocks have the best prospects, and which have the worst?
不错，我们知道在过去的10 年怎么能赚到钱。然而，投资者们真正想知道的是：什么是未来10 年最好的投资？哪个市场、哪个类股、哪支股票拥有最乐观的前景，又有哪些的前景最为糟糕？
The first thing to note: Put not your faith in analysts.
要注意的第一件事就是：千万别相信分析师。
Why not?
为什么不呢？
In preparation for this column I asked the Proprietary Research team at Thomson Reuters to take a look at all the analysts' recommendations, across the Standard & Poor's 500-index group of major stocks, on your behalf.
在准备这篇专栏文章的时候，我要求汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)的独立客户调查团队看一看所有分析师代表投资者对标准普尔500指数(Standard & Poor's 500-index)主要股票所作出的推荐。
The results tell you most of what you need to know about Wall Street analysts' recommendations.
调查的结果基本会揭示你所需要了解的有关华尔街分析师荐股的全部信息。
Of the 9,162 outstanding notes covering S&P 500 stocks, fewer than 7% are negative. And most of those are merely 'underperform' calls. Just 189 notes, or 2% of the total, are outright 'sell' recommendations.
在针对标普500股票的9,162个评级中，不足7%的评级为负面。而这些负面评级中的大多数都仅仅是“弱于大盘”，只有相当于总数2%的189个评级是直截了当的“卖出”。
By contrast, these bearish notes-633 in all-are swamped by the 2,347 'buy' recommendations ... and the additional 2,190 'strong buys.' (For those counting, there are also several thousand neutral 'hold' notes.)
相比之下，这633个看跌评级被2,347个“买入”推荐──以及另外的2,190个“强力买入”（还有数千个中性的“持有”评级）──淹没了。
Analysts were similarly bullish at this point 10 years ago, at the start of the worst decade for U.S. investors in recorded history-as they were two years ago, just before the biggest crash in living memory.
分析师在10 年前的这个时候，也就是有记录以来美国投资者遭遇的最糟糕10 年开始的时候同样信心满满──而在两年前，也就是人们记忆中最严重的经济崩盘来临之时，他们也是信心满满。
At the start of 2008, according to Thomson Reuters, even fewer recommendations were bearish-a mere 6% were either a 'sell' or an 'underperform,' while 49% were 'buy' recommendations, of which 21% were a 'strong buy.' This, I repeat, at the start of 2008, a terrible year.
根据汤森路透的数字，看跌评级在2008年早些时候甚至要更少些──仅有6%的评级为“卖出”或“弱于大盘”，而49%的评级为“买入”，而且其中的21%还属于“强力买入”评级。我再说一遍，这是在一个糟糕的年头2008年开始的时候。
In short, even after the past dismal decade, Wall Street analysts remain a cheerleading chorus whose published advice is a dubious guide for serious investors.
简而言之，即便上一个惨淡的10 年成为过去式之后，华尔街的分析师们仍然充当着高唱凯歌的拉拉队，他们的投资建议在那些严肃的投资者们看来缺乏可信度。
Some will consider this a scandal. If, like me, you have been following Wall Street long enough to have achieved a Zen-like state of total cynicism, you may merely find it amusing.
有些人可能会把这当成一桩丑闻。不过如果你像我一样，关注华尔街的时间足够长，而且已经达到了不折不扣的犬儒主义这种充满禅意的境界，你或许只会觉得这一切很好笑。
So if you're searching for the best bets for the new decade, where else can you look for ideas?
所以，如果你正在寻找新的10 年里最好的投资，你还能从哪里找寻启示呢？
Amateur investors often chase the most popular investments. But serious professionals are more likely to look with interest for the least popular.
业余投资者们通常会追逐那些最受人欢迎的投资。但严肃的专业人士更有可能把目光放在那些最不受欢迎的投资品种上面。
Those stocks,markets and asset classes that are most out of favor with investors often contain the best bargains, for the simple reason that nobody wants them. The expectations bar may be set so low that there is plenty of room for positive surprises.
那些最不受投资者青睐的股票、市场和资产类别通常包含价格最优惠的股票，个中原因也很简单，那就是因为没人想要得到它们。对它们的期望值或许低得让投资者们有相当大的获利空间。
As I noted last month, the most popular investments 10 years ago were technology stocks, and probably the least popular was gold. The results weren't even close: Tech collapsed, and gold soared.
就像我在上个月观察到的，10 年前最受欢迎的投资是科技类股，而最不受欢迎的或许要算是黄金了。而结果却截然不同：科技类股一落千丈，而黄金则一飞冲天。
What is unpopular today? If you look at analysts' recommendations, very little. According to Thomson Reuters, just six stocks in the S&P 500 are so out of fashion that even the average analyst following them has them as an 'underperform.' What are these dirty half-dozen? Step forward, infamous insurer American International Group, real estate investment trust Apartment Investment & Management, Eastman Kodak, Jack Daniel's distiller Brown-Forman , chocolate maker Hershey and retailer Sears Holdings .
那么今天什么投资不受欢迎呢？如果你看看分析师的评级就会发现，只有非常少的投资不受欢迎。根据汤森路透的统计，在标普500指数中仅有六只股票显得如此不受追捧，以至于跟踪这些股票的分析师大都将它们的评级定为“弱于大盘。”那么这些表现不佳的六只股票是哪些呢？出列吧──声名狼藉的保险商美国国际集团(American International Group)、房地产投资信托Apartment Investment & Management、伊士曼-柯达公司(Eastman Kodak)、Jack Daniel的酿酒商Brown-Forman、巧克力制造商好时食品(Hershey)和零售商Sears Holdings。
This is not a recommended buy list, and should not be treated as one. Some of these stocks are super high-risk. (The only ones that might allow me to sleep at nights are Hershey and Brown-Forman; both seem to be solid companies in solid industries, but you need to do your homework.) It will be interesting to see whether these justify their unpopularity and fare worse than, say, a simple index fund over the next year, or decade.
这并不是一份推荐买入的股票清单，你也不该这样看待它。其中有些股票风险极高。（能让我在晚上睡得着觉的股票或许只有好时食品和Brown-Forman；两家公司都算得上是身处稳定行业的稳定企业，不过你还是需要回家做功课。）看看这些不受欢迎的股票在未来一年或10年是否真的会表现糟糕，甚至糟糕到连一支简单的指数基金的表现也不如，会是一件有意思的事情。
Analysts' recommendations aren't the only measure of popularity, of course. They may not even be the best one. One alternative is to look at where the institutional-investment crowd has bet its (or, to be accurate, your) money. Maybe the best guide to that is the survey of global fund managers published every month by Merrill Lynch/Bank of America Securities.
当然，分析师的推荐并不是衡量受欢迎程度的唯一标准，甚至也算不上是最好的标准。另一个选择是看看机构投资者们将他们的（或者，更确切地说，是你的）资金押在了哪里。在这方面最好的指南或许要算是美林(Merrill Lynch)/美银证券(Bank of America Securities)每月发布的全球基金经理调查。
This is often a contrarian investor's bible. These money managers, after all, move markets. When they are all bidding for certain fashionable assets they drive up the price-often too high. And the cheapest assets are often the ones in which they have lost interest. (Gold was so out of fashion it didn't even feature in the survey until about six years ago, when, on a suggestion from yours truly, Merrill Lynch began to include it.)
这份调查通常是逆向投资者们的圣经。不管怎么说，这些基金经理都堪称是股市的推动者。当他们都在竞相买入某种时髦资产的时候，这些资产的价格也就被推到了一个通常过高的点位。而最廉价的资产通常是那些基金经理们已经不感兴趣的资产。（黄金在那个时候很不时兴，以至于在调查中找不到它的身影，直到六年前，在本人的建议之下，美林将其列为选项之一，黄金才就此在调查中露面。）
The most recent survey, from December, shows fund managers cautiously positive on markets. From the point of view of the private investor, a few things leap out.
去年12月份最新的一次调查显示了基金经理们对市场持谨慎的正面看法。从私人投资者的视角来看，有一些事情引人注意。
By far the most popular assets with money managers are emerging-market equities and commodities. The degree of bullishness on emerging markets is particularly worrying: It has reached levels comparable to those seen at the market peaks in 2007. Money managers have also invested heavily in energy and materials companies, and in technology stocks.
迄今为止最受基金经理欢迎的资产莫过于新兴市场股票和大宗商品了。对新兴市场的看涨程度尤其令人担心：它已经达到了可与2007年市场顶点媲美的水平。基金经理还对能源和材料企业以及科技类股进行了大笔投资。
As for the unloved? The least-popular sectors in the stock market right now are banks, utilities and consumer-discretionary stocks. Among global markets, investors are generally least interested in Japan and the U.S.
不受欢迎的又有哪些呢？眼下股市最不受欢迎的类股是银行、公用事业和非必需消费品类股。在全球市场内，总体来说，投资者对日本和美国市场的兴趣最弱。
Are these investments the ones to back for the next decade? Stranger things have happened. They probably won't do worse than the next 'buy' recommendation you hear on TV.
这些投资是不是应成为未来10年的投资呢？人们意想不到的事情已经成为了现实。这些投资可能不会比你从电视上听到的那些得到了“买入”评级的股票差多少。
Brett Arends
不错，我们知道在过去的10 年怎么能赚到钱。然而，投资者们真正想知道的是：什么是未来10 年最好的投资？哪个市场、哪个类股、哪支股票拥有最乐观的前景，又有哪些的前景最为糟糕？
The first thing to note: Put not your faith in analysts.
要注意的第一件事就是：千万别相信分析师。
Why not?
为什么不呢？
In preparation for this column I asked the Proprietary Research team at Thomson Reuters to take a look at all the analysts' recommendations, across the Standard & Poor's 500-index group of major stocks, on your behalf.
在准备这篇专栏文章的时候，我要求汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)的独立客户调查团队看一看所有分析师代表投资者对标准普尔500指数(Standard & Poor's 500-index)主要股票所作出的推荐。
The results tell you most of what you need to know about Wall Street analysts' recommendations.
调查的结果基本会揭示你所需要了解的有关华尔街分析师荐股的全部信息。
Of the 9,162 outstanding notes covering S&P 500 stocks, fewer than 7% are negative. And most of those are merely 'underperform' calls. Just 189 notes, or 2% of the total, are outright 'sell' recommendations.
在针对标普500股票的9,162个评级中，不足7%的评级为负面。而这些负面评级中的大多数都仅仅是“弱于大盘”，只有相当于总数2%的189个评级是直截了当的“卖出”。
By contrast, these bearish notes-633 in all-are swamped by the 2,347 'buy' recommendations ... and the additional 2,190 'strong buys.' (For those counting, there are also several thousand neutral 'hold' notes.)
相比之下，这633个看跌评级被2,347个“买入”推荐──以及另外的2,190个“强力买入”（还有数千个中性的“持有”评级）──淹没了。
Analysts were similarly bullish at this point 10 years ago, at the start of the worst decade for U.S. investors in recorded history-as they were two years ago, just before the biggest crash in living memory.
分析师在10 年前的这个时候，也就是有记录以来美国投资者遭遇的最糟糕10 年开始的时候同样信心满满──而在两年前，也就是人们记忆中最严重的经济崩盘来临之时，他们也是信心满满。
At the start of 2008, according to Thomson Reuters, even fewer recommendations were bearish-a mere 6% were either a 'sell' or an 'underperform,' while 49% were 'buy' recommendations, of which 21% were a 'strong buy.' This, I repeat, at the start of 2008, a terrible year.
根据汤森路透的数字，看跌评级在2008年早些时候甚至要更少些──仅有6%的评级为“卖出”或“弱于大盘”，而49%的评级为“买入”，而且其中的21%还属于“强力买入”评级。我再说一遍，这是在一个糟糕的年头2008年开始的时候。
In short, even after the past dismal decade, Wall Street analysts remain a cheerleading chorus whose published advice is a dubious guide for serious investors.
简而言之，即便上一个惨淡的10 年成为过去式之后，华尔街的分析师们仍然充当着高唱凯歌的拉拉队，他们的投资建议在那些严肃的投资者们看来缺乏可信度。
Some will consider this a scandal. If, like me, you have been following Wall Street long enough to have achieved a Zen-like state of total cynicism, you may merely find it amusing.
有些人可能会把这当成一桩丑闻。不过如果你像我一样，关注华尔街的时间足够长，而且已经达到了不折不扣的犬儒主义这种充满禅意的境界，你或许只会觉得这一切很好笑。
So if you're searching for the best bets for the new decade, where else can you look for ideas?
所以，如果你正在寻找新的10 年里最好的投资，你还能从哪里找寻启示呢？
Amateur investors often chase the most popular investments. But serious professionals are more likely to look with interest for the least popular.
业余投资者们通常会追逐那些最受人欢迎的投资。但严肃的专业人士更有可能把目光放在那些最不受欢迎的投资品种上面。
Those stocks,markets and asset classes that are most out of favor with investors often contain the best bargains, for the simple reason that nobody wants them. The expectations bar may be set so low that there is plenty of room for positive surprises.
那些最不受投资者青睐的股票、市场和资产类别通常包含价格最优惠的股票，个中原因也很简单，那就是因为没人想要得到它们。对它们的期望值或许低得让投资者们有相当大的获利空间。
As I noted last month, the most popular investments 10 years ago were technology stocks, and probably the least popular was gold. The results weren't even close: Tech collapsed, and gold soared.
就像我在上个月观察到的，10 年前最受欢迎的投资是科技类股，而最不受欢迎的或许要算是黄金了。而结果却截然不同：科技类股一落千丈，而黄金则一飞冲天。
What is unpopular today? If you look at analysts' recommendations, very little. According to Thomson Reuters, just six stocks in the S&P 500 are so out of fashion that even the average analyst following them has them as an 'underperform.' What are these dirty half-dozen? Step forward, infamous insurer American International Group, real estate investment trust Apartment Investment & Management, Eastman Kodak, Jack Daniel's distiller Brown-Forman , chocolate maker Hershey and retailer Sears Holdings .
那么今天什么投资不受欢迎呢？如果你看看分析师的评级就会发现，只有非常少的投资不受欢迎。根据汤森路透的统计，在标普500指数中仅有六只股票显得如此不受追捧，以至于跟踪这些股票的分析师大都将它们的评级定为“弱于大盘。”那么这些表现不佳的六只股票是哪些呢？出列吧──声名狼藉的保险商美国国际集团(American International Group)、房地产投资信托Apartment Investment & Management、伊士曼-柯达公司(Eastman Kodak)、Jack Daniel的酿酒商Brown-Forman、巧克力制造商好时食品(Hershey)和零售商Sears Holdings。
This is not a recommended buy list, and should not be treated as one. Some of these stocks are super high-risk. (The only ones that might allow me to sleep at nights are Hershey and Brown-Forman; both seem to be solid companies in solid industries, but you need to do your homework.) It will be interesting to see whether these justify their unpopularity and fare worse than, say, a simple index fund over the next year, or decade.
这并不是一份推荐买入的股票清单，你也不该这样看待它。其中有些股票风险极高。（能让我在晚上睡得着觉的股票或许只有好时食品和Brown-Forman；两家公司都算得上是身处稳定行业的稳定企业，不过你还是需要回家做功课。）看看这些不受欢迎的股票在未来一年或10年是否真的会表现糟糕，甚至糟糕到连一支简单的指数基金的表现也不如，会是一件有意思的事情。
Analysts' recommendations aren't the only measure of popularity, of course. They may not even be the best one. One alternative is to look at where the institutional-investment crowd has bet its (or, to be accurate, your) money. Maybe the best guide to that is the survey of global fund managers published every month by Merrill Lynch/Bank of America Securities.
当然，分析师的推荐并不是衡量受欢迎程度的唯一标准，甚至也算不上是最好的标准。另一个选择是看看机构投资者们将他们的（或者，更确切地说，是你的）资金押在了哪里。在这方面最好的指南或许要算是美林(Merrill Lynch)/美银证券(Bank of America Securities)每月发布的全球基金经理调查。
This is often a contrarian investor's bible. These money managers, after all, move markets. When they are all bidding for certain fashionable assets they drive up the price-often too high. And the cheapest assets are often the ones in which they have lost interest. (Gold was so out of fashion it didn't even feature in the survey until about six years ago, when, on a suggestion from yours truly, Merrill Lynch began to include it.)
这份调查通常是逆向投资者们的圣经。不管怎么说，这些基金经理都堪称是股市的推动者。当他们都在竞相买入某种时髦资产的时候，这些资产的价格也就被推到了一个通常过高的点位。而最廉价的资产通常是那些基金经理们已经不感兴趣的资产。（黄金在那个时候很不时兴，以至于在调查中找不到它的身影，直到六年前，在本人的建议之下，美林将其列为选项之一，黄金才就此在调查中露面。）
The most recent survey, from December, shows fund managers cautiously positive on markets. From the point of view of the private investor, a few things leap out.
去年12月份最新的一次调查显示了基金经理们对市场持谨慎的正面看法。从私人投资者的视角来看，有一些事情引人注意。
By far the most popular assets with money managers are emerging-market equities and commodities. The degree of bullishness on emerging markets is particularly worrying: It has reached levels comparable to those seen at the market peaks in 2007. Money managers have also invested heavily in energy and materials companies, and in technology stocks.
迄今为止最受基金经理欢迎的资产莫过于新兴市场股票和大宗商品了。对新兴市场的看涨程度尤其令人担心：它已经达到了可与2007年市场顶点媲美的水平。基金经理还对能源和材料企业以及科技类股进行了大笔投资。
As for the unloved? The least-popular sectors in the stock market right now are banks, utilities and consumer-discretionary stocks. Among global markets, investors are generally least interested in Japan and the U.S.
不受欢迎的又有哪些呢？眼下股市最不受欢迎的类股是银行、公用事业和非必需消费品类股。在全球市场内，总体来说，投资者对日本和美国市场的兴趣最弱。
Are these investments the ones to back for the next decade? Stranger things have happened. They probably won't do worse than the next 'buy' recommendation you hear on TV.
这些投资是不是应成为未来10年的投资呢？人们意想不到的事情已经成为了现实。这些投资可能不会比你从电视上听到的那些得到了“买入”评级的股票差多少。
Brett Arends
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