中国经济初现“软着陆”

Nervous investors in China were given a fresh reason to worry yesterday as a slew of reports on manufacturing suggested that the pace of growth in factory activity is slowing across much of Asia and may even have turned negative in China.

紧张的中国投资者昨日又有了新的担忧理由：有关制造业形势的一系列报告似乎表明，亚洲许多地方的工厂活动增速正在放缓，在中国甚至可能已经转入下行轨道。

China's manufacturing output contracted slightly on one unofficial but closely watched measure while the country's National Bureau of Statistics described the official numbers as grim.

根据一项非官方但受到密切关注的指数，中国的制造业产出略有收缩。同时中国国家统计局(NBS)称官方数据不容乐观。

The HSBC purchasing managers' index remained positive, falling to 50.4 from 52.7 in May, and the official PMI index published by the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing fell to 52.1 in June from 53.9. An index figure above 50 indicates an expansion of activity, while a figure below 50 indicates a contraction.

汇丰(HSBC)采购经理人指数(PMI)从5月份的52.7降至50.4，仍位于临界点上方，同时，中国物流与采购联合会(Federation of Logistics and Purchasing)发表的官方PMI指数从53.9降至6月份的52.1。高于50的指数数据表明经济活动扩张，而低于50则表明经济活动收缩。

However, HSBC also said its sub-index for Chinese factory output fell to 49.6, which would be consistent with a slight fall in production. The index stood at 60.6 at the start of the year and has been slowing steadily.

不过，汇丰还表示其中国工厂产出分类指数降至49.6，与生产指数的轻微回落相吻合。今年初该指数达到60.6，此后一路下降。

The general picture of growing weakness was broadly supported by the official index, which reported falls in the sub- indices for new export orders, backlogs of work, imports and employment, though not all turned negative and the output sub-index remained positive, falling to 55.8 from 58.2 in May.

疲态日显的总体局势，大体上得到了官方指数的支持。根据官方数据，新出口订单、积压订单、进口和就业等分类指数均出现回落，尽管并未全部跌至临界点以下，而生产分类指数仍位于临界点上方，从5月份的58.2降至55.8。

China's National Bureau of Statistics said the official numbers reflected the impact of tighter government policies and a weakening of the global recovery.

中国国家统计局表示，官方数据反映了政府收紧政策和全球复苏趋缓的影响。

As well as slowing the approval of new investment projects and growth in bank credit, the government in April unveiled a package of policies aimed at reducing speculation in the country's property market. Beijing has also modestly appreciated the currency against the US dollar in recent days.

除了放慢新投资项目审批和银行信贷增长外，中国政府4月份还出台了一揽子政策，力求遏制房地产市场的投机。近日，北京方面还让人民币对美元小幅升值。

Although international investors have been reacting nervously to reports of slowing growth in China, most economists analysing the country believe the economy is headed for a much-needed slowdown from the heady growth of the first quarter, when gross domestic product rose 11.9 per cent, rather than a slump.

虽然国际投资者对中国增长放缓的报告反应紧张，但分析该国的多数经济学家相信，中国经济正从今年首季令人眩晕的增长（国内生产总值增幅达11.9%），走向亟需的减速，而非下滑。

Economists said the gradual slowing would turn into a hard landing only if construction activity collapsed as a result of the clampdown on property speculation or if exports weakened sharply again as a result of subdued growth in Europe and the US. Hongbin Qu, HSBC's China chief economist, said the PMI numbers implied slower growth in the country's manufacturing sector, partly due to the tightening measures taking effect. But he said fears of a hard landing were “overplayed”.

经济学家们表示，逐步减速只有在两种情况下才会变成“硬着陆”：一是遏制房地产投机的政策造成建筑活动崩溃，二是欧美增长乏力导致中国出口急剧转弱。汇丰中国首席经济学家屈宏斌表示，PMI数据显示中国制造业增长趋缓，部分原因是政府收紧措施开始奏效。但他表示，对硬着陆的担忧是“夸大的”。

Mr Qu said HSBC expected China's economy to continue growing strongly in the second half of the year, underpinned by massive investment spending and robust private consumption.

屈宏斌表示，汇丰预期大规模的投资支出和旺盛的私人消费，将会支撑中国经济在下半年继续强劲增长。

The figures on China came as PMI reports from South Korea, Taiwan, India and Australia all showed weaker activity for June. The monthly PMI report for Japan told a similar story.

与此同时，韩国、台湾、印度以及澳大利亚的PMI报告均显示6月份工厂活动转弱。日本的PMI月度报告也显示类似的情况。

The overall level of factory activity – which includes a range of measures in addition to output – continued to expand in all six Asia-Pacific countries, suggesting that manufacturing may be returning to more normal rates of growth rather than heading for contraction.

在所有六个亚太经济体，工厂活动的总体水平（包括含产出在内的一系列衡量指标）仍处于扩张状态，表明制造业也许正回归更为正常的增长率，而非走向收缩。

The HSBC South Korea PMI fell to 53.3 for June from 54.6 in May, indicating the weakest pace of expansion since December 2009 but extending a series of positive monthly reports to 16 successive months.

汇丰韩国PMI指数从5月份的54.6降至6月份的53.3，这是自2009年12月以来最弱的扩张速度，但也是该月度报告连续第16个月位于临界点上方。

Waiho Leong, economist at Barclays Capital in Singapore, pointed to a 32.4 per cent increase in South Korean exports in June from a year earlier as evidence that growth in Asia “may not be about to keel over just yet”.

巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)驻新加坡经济学家梁伟豪(Waiho Leong)以韩国6月份出口同比增长32.4%为据，说明亚洲经济增长“也许还不会马上跌倒”。

The HSBC India manufacturing PMI retreated from a 27-month high of 59.0 in May to 57.3 in June. Economists said factory activity and prices were retreating from very elevated levels.

汇丰印度制造业PMI从5月份59.0的27个月高位，降至6月份的57.3。经济学家们表示，工厂活动和价格正从严重高企的水平回落。