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Violence in Bangkok
No end in sight
Violent clashes in Bangkok between the army and red-shirt protesters could get worse
May 16th 2010 | BANGKOK | From The Economist online

DAYS of deadly street battles between Thai security forces and red-shirt protesters showed no sign of abating on Sunday May 16th. Like the bonfires of fuel-soaked tyres that they set alight, the rage that ignites the roaming gangs of protesters and hoodlums burns bright. And soldiers stand guard at street junctions where signs read “live-fire zone”. At least 35 people have died since Thursday, some reportedly cut down by army snipers hiding in the tower blocks that once symbolised Thailand’s economic promise.
What lies ahead could be much worse. Thousands of protesters, many of them bussed in from the countryside, are sleeping in the shadows of luxury hotels and shopping malls. Many are loyal to a former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, who was kicked out in a 2006 coup. They have occupied a large area of central Bangkok for the past month to force the prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, to dissolve parliament and hold new elections. The government, businesses and many Bangkok residents want the red shirts out. Threats and emergency laws have not worked. Peace talks appeared to bear fruit, but fell apart quickly.
Now the army has encircled the site and the talk is of war, not peace. Supplies of food and water are running low, and red-shirt reinforcements are being prevented from joining the protests. Demonstrators are being urged to leave, with priority given to women, children and the elderly. Those that stay face an uncertain fate. On Saturday Mr Abhisit repeated his determination to end the protests and gave warning that losses “will have to be endured”. Some fear that is a green light for a crackdown by the army and even greater loss of life.
Leaders of the protests have called for UN-brokered talks, to the dismay of Thai officials. Thailand’s foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, recently berated foreign diplomats for talking to the red shirts, whom he calls “terrorists”, but not doing enough to catch Mr Thaksin—another “terrorist”—who is a fugitive from Thai justice. Officials complain that Mr Thaksin wrecked a peace proposal unveiled by Mr Abhisit on May 3rd that would prepare Thailand for elections in November. Some protest leaders had seemed ready to go home, then changed their mind. That is because Mr Thaksin was not satisfied and “has veto power”, argues a cabinet minister.
Not everyone is convinced by this explanation. The government was quick to retract its offer when red-shirt leaders amended their demands. Mr Abhisit is under pressure from hardliners who want to use force to crush the protests. Critics also question his ability to deliver on the deal, since his Democrat Party has been charged with election violations that could lead to its court-ordered break-up.
There is another, equally worrying, reason why the peace plan may have collapsed: demonstrators, radicalised by the protest movement, rejected it. They distrust leaders who talked of compromise after so much blood had been spilled. Far better to keep fighting and keep up the pressure on the government. Hardline red-shirt protesters are unlikely to want to give up so easily.
Until May 13th, the public face of such militancy was Khattiya Sawasdipol, a renegade army general turned red-shirt security chief. He vigorously opposed a peace deal that left Mr Abhisit in power. That night a sniper’s bullet cut him down. He died on May 17th. The army denies involvement, but few believe it. The incident enraged his supporters and sparked the current fighting around the protest site’s perimeter, though it has spread elsewhere. The chaos has forced parts of Bangkok to shut down. A curfew may come shortly. The unrest is gathering strength away from Thailand’s capital too. A state of emergency was declared in five provinces on Saturday, bringing the total to 22: nearly a third of the country.
The violence is the worst since April 10th, when 25 people died in clashes at another protest site. On that occasion, several soldiers were among the dead, apparently at the hands of black-clad gunmen with army-issue weapons. This time, the battle appears much more one-sided: protesters, and the occasional by-stander, are the victims. Officials say soldiers have a right to fire in self-defence. But that does not square with eyewitness accounts of trigger-happy soldiers. Nor does it bode well for an orderly end to the rally.
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