中国在测试中摧毁卫星

Flexing Muscle, China Destroys Satellite in Test
 
ByWILLIAM J. BROAD andDAVID E. SANGER
Published: January 19, 2007
China successfully carried out itsfirst test of an antisatellite weapon last week, signaling its resolveto play a major role in military space activities and bringingexpressions of concern from Washington and other capitals, the Bushadministration said yesterday.
Only two nations — theSoviet Union and the United States — have previously destroyedspacecraft in antisatellite tests, most recently the United States inthe mid-1980s.
Arms control experts called the test, in which theweapon destroyed an aging Chinese weather satellite, a troublingdevelopment that could foreshadow an antisatellite arms race.Alternatively, however, some experts speculated that it could precede adiplomatic effort by China to prod the Bush administration intonegotiations on a weapons ban.
“This is the first real escalation in the weaponization of space that we’ve seen in 20 years,” said Jonathan McDowell, aHarvard astronomer who tracks rocket launchings and space activity. “It ends a long period of restraint.”
WhiteHouse officials said the United States and other nations, which theydid not identify, had “expressed our concern regarding this action tothe Chinese.” Despite its protest, the Bush administration has longresisted a global treaty banning such tests because it says it needsfreedom of action in space.
Jianhua Li, a spokesman at theChinese Embassy in Washington, said that he had heard about theantisatellite story but that he had no statement or information.
Ata time when China is modernizing its nuclear weapons, expanding thereach of its navy and sending astronauts into orbit for the first time,the test appears to mark a new sphere of technical and militarycompetition. American officials complained yesterday that China hadmade no public or private announcements about its test, despiterepeated requests by American officials for more openness about itsactions.
The weather satellite hit by the weapon had circled theglobe at an altitude of roughly 500 miles. In theory, the test meansthat China can now hit American spy satellites, which orbit closer toEarth. The satellites presumably in range of the Chinese missileinclude most of the imagery satellites used for basic militaryreconnaissance, which are essentially the eyes of the Americanintelligence community for military movements, potential nuclear testsand even some counterterrorism, and commercial satellites.
Experts said the weather satellite’s speeding remnants could pose a threat to other satellites for years or even decades.
In late August, President Bush authorized a new national space policythat ignored calls for a global prohibition on such tests. The policysaid the United States would “preserve its rights, capabilities, andfreedom of action in space” and “dissuade or deter others from eitherimpeding those rights or developing capabilities intended to do so.” Itdeclared the United States would “deny, if necessary, adversaries theuse of space capabilities hostile to U.S. national interests.”
TheChinese test “could be a shot across the bow,” said Theresa Hitchens,director of the Center for Defense Information, a private group inWashington that tracks military programs. “For several years, theRussians and Chinese have been trying to push a treaty to ban spaceweapons. The concept of exhibiting a hard-power capability to bringsomebody to the negotiating table is a classic cold war technique.”
Gary Samore, the director of studies at theCouncil on Foreign Relations,said in an interview: “I think it makes perfect sense for the Chineseto do this both for deterrence and to hedge their bets. It putspressure on the U.S. to negotiate agreements not to weaponize space.”
Ms.Hitchens and other critics have accused the administration ofconducting secret research on advanced antisatellite weapons usinglasers, which are considered a far speedier and more powerful way ofdestroying satellites than the weapons of two decades ago.
The White House statement, issued by theNational Security Council,said China’s “development and testing of such weapons is inconsistentwith the spirit of cooperation that both countries aspire to in thecivil space area.”
An administration official who had reviewedthe intelligence about China’s test said the launching was detected bythe United States in the early evening of Jan. 11, which would havebeen early morning on Jan. 12 in China. American satellites tracked thelaunching of the medium-range ballistic missile, and later space radarssaw the debris.
The antisatellite test was first reported late Wednesday on the Website of Aviation Week and Space Technology, an industry magazine. Itsaid intelligence agencies had yet to “complete confirmation of thetest.”
The test, the magazine said, appeared to employ aground-based interceptor that used the sheer force of impact ratherthan an exploding warhead to shatter the satellite.
Dr. McDowellof Harvard said the satellite was known as Feng Yun, or “wind andcloud.” Launched in 1999, it was the third in a series. He said that itwas a cube measuring 4.6 feet on each side, and that its solar panelsextended about 28 feet. He added that it was due for retirement butthat it still appeared to be electronically alive, making it an idealtarget.
“If it stops working,” he said, “you know you have a successful hit.”
David C. Wright, a senior scientist at theUnion of Concerned Scientists,a private group in Cambridge, Mass., said he calculated that theChinese satellite had shattered into 800 fragments four inches wide orlarger, and millions of smaller pieces.
The Soviet Unionconducted roughly a dozen antisatellite tests from 1968 to 1982, Dr.McDowell said, adding that the Reagan administration carried out itsexperiments in 1985 and 1986.
The Bush administration hasconducted research that critics say could produce a powerfulground-based laser weapon that would be used against enemy satellites.
Thelargely secret project, parts of which were made public through AirForce budget documents submitted to Congress last year, appears to bepart of a wide-ranging administration effort to develop space weapons,both defensive and offensive.
The administration’s laser researchis far more ambitious than a previous effort by the Clintonadministration to develop an antisatellite laser, though theadministration denies that it is an attempt to build a laser weapon.
Thecurrent research takes advantage of an optical technique that usessensors, computers and flexible mirrors to counteract the atmosphericturbulence that seems to make stars twinkle. The weapon wouldessentially reverse that process, shooting focused beams of lightupward with great clarity and force.
Michael Krepon, co-founderof the Henry L. Stimson Center, a group that studies national security,called the Chinese test very un-Chinese.
“There’s nothing subtleabout this,” he said. “They’ve created a huge debris cloud that willlast a quarter century or more. It’s at a higher elevation than thetest we did in 1985, and for that one the last trackable debris took 17years to clear out.”
Mr. Krepon added that the administration hadlong argued that the world needed no space-weapons treaty because nosuch arms existed and because the last tests were two decades ago. “Itseems,” he said, “that argument is no longer operative.”